“The lover carves into his soul the model of the beloved. In that way, the soul of the lover becomes the mirror in which the image of the loved one is reflected.” - Marsilio Ficino, Commentary on Plato's Symposium
Nietzsche’s criticisms of Hegel are often conflated with Schopenhauer’s. Often by people who type things like, “I’m in the Schopenhauer camp when it comes to Hegel and his ilk.” In a series of Beeps-and-Boops they copy-and-paste Schopenhauer’s loathing without any of Schopenhauer’s substance (which would require actually engaging with Schopenhauer and Hegel) instead these Thinkers exists as little framed photos on a candle covered shrine in Geocities. Even if they’re correct they’re still wrong and worthy of immediate scorn and derision. We must express the most profound sense of Christian Pity and Charity at the sight of their nakedness.
It’s easy to spiral on this particular subject but unbecoming, revealing, even damning. What they don’t seem to process, is that the seethe and the scolding and the tantrums are in their manner the highest form of compliment either philosopher could muster. That the younger Schopenhauer’s response to Hegel’s semantic blunder should be a kind of ecstatic fury that propelled his career as a philosopher. That Schopenhauer is endearing when he puts pen to paper and writes:
“May Hegel's philosophy of absolute nonsense - three-fourths cash and one-fourth crazy fancies - continue to pass for unfathomable wisdom without anyone suggesting as an appropriate motto for his writings Shakespeare's words: "Such stuff as madmen tongue and brain not," or, as an emblematical vignette, the cuttle-fish with its ink-bag, creating a cloud of darkness around it to prevent people from seeing what it is, with the device: mea caligine tutus. - May each day bring us, as hitherto, new systems adapted for University purposes, entirely made up of words and phrases and in a learned jargon besides, which allows people to talk whole days without saying anything; and may these delights never be disturbed by the Arabian proverb: "I hear the clappering of the mill, but I see no flour." - For all this is in accordance with the age and must have its course.”
Tempestuous little man. Without Hegel’s error what would’ve become of Schopenhauer? Would he have attempted to actively compete against Hegel? Hegel as the Phantom of Eric Roberts in the Killers Miss Atomic Bomb music video? The Other-Ghost, Hegel’s Smirking Geist cucking Schopenhauer, Sophia in his arms, Schopenhauer casts the wedding ring to the ground and runs away. As was the case in respect to Kierkegaard. Cucked out of marriage by the Ghost & Machine. “And it’s all in my head, but she’s touching his chest now, he takes off her dress now, LET ME GO. And I just can’t look it’s killing me. And taking control.”
An error is a wound is a mercy.
Nietzsche is different. Unlike Schopenhauer he doesn’t pretend to create a superior metaphysical system (the Platonic Carnivalesque) to rival Hegel’s.
I think the spirit of a Nietzschean critique of Hegel is best exemplified by aphorism 317 in Daybreak,
“The judgment of the evening. - He who reflects on the work he has done during the day and during his life, but does so when he has finished it and is tired, usually arrives at a melancholy conclusion: this however is not the fault of his day or his life, but of his tiredness. - In the midst of our work we usually have no leisure to pass judgment on life and existence, nor in the midst of our pleasures: but if we should happen to do so, we should no longer agree with him who waited for the seventh day and its repose before he decided that everything was very beautiful - he had let the better moment go by.”
Hegel as a Christian Nihilist and the Dialectic as Slave Morality. All finite forms of life attain their truth in the process of self-overcoming. Hegel uses Negativity to pacify an excess of Negativity. Hegel’s System annuls the Abyss. The Truth of any given determination is realized in its exhaustion. This Truth is what Remains. As part of a Whole. Eternal. Defeat for Hegel is what brings us to our Truth. That the subject’s defeat should purify it of its particularities and its impositions. My thoughts are already part of reality. This Knowledge leads to renunciation. I’m no longer attempting to impose or enforce myself on reality, to shape it in the heat of my perverse gaze. I look up at the stars and recognize a series of sores oozing out a brilliant light. In the Beggar’s Eye I see Christ. Saint Lazarus draped in indigo rags surrounded by dogs. In the Eyes of the King of the World, Christ. In the Illness the Cure. In the Poison the Medicine.
Hegel stands next to his student, the student looks up at the starry sky in awe. “They are the abode of the blessed.” Hegel grumbles, “The stars, hum! Hum! The stars are only a gleaming leprosy in the sky.’” Like Lorde, he never watches the stars because there’s so much down here. As he puts it in one lecture,
“The human being is this Night, this empty nothing which contains everything in its simplicity - a wealth of infinitely many representations, images, none of which occur to it directly, and none of which are not present. This [is] the Night; the interior of [human] nature, existing here - pure Self - [and] in phantasmagoric representations it is night everywhere: here a bloody head suddenly shoots up and there another white shape, only to disappear as suddenly. We see this Night when we look a human being in the eye, looking into a Night which turns, terrifying. [For from his eyes] the night of the world hangs out towards us.”
Let us then briefly think with Hegel whose underling problem is, from the very beginning of his thought, that of love.
What is Blue?
According to Goethe in his Theory of Colors,
“As yellow is always accompanied with light, so it may be said that blue still brings a principle of darkness with it.
This color has a peculiar and almost indescribable effect on the eye. As a hue it is powerful — but it is on the negative side, and in its highest purity is, as it were, a stimulating negation. Its appearance, then, is a kind of contradiction between excitement and repose.
As the upper sky and distant mountains appear blue, so a blue surface seems to retire from us.
But as we readily follow an agreeable object that flies from us, so we love to contemplate blue — not because it advances to us, but because it draws us after it.
Blue gives us an impression of cold, and thus, again, reminds us of shade. We have before spoken of its affinity with black.
Rooms which are hung with pure blue, appear in some degree larger, but at the same time empty and cold.
The appearance of objects seen through a blue glass is gloomy and melancholy.”
Goethe and a defense of Goethe’s critique of Newton’s Opticks unites Hegel and Schopenhauer. That color is produced by light and by what stands against it. Goethe who said that were the eye not of the sun how could we behold the light. Brilliant in the poetic continuity this expresses. A golden chain from Empedocles to Plato and Aristotle to the Stoics and so on. Summarized here elegantly by the physicist Arthur Zajonc, “the interior light coalesces with daylight, like to like, forming thereby a single homogenous body of light. That body, a marriage of inner light and outer, forges a link between the objects of the world and the soul. It becomes the bridge along which the subtle motions of an exterior object may pass, causing the sensation of sight.” Aristotle proposed the existence of a Proton Organon or Primary Instrument, an organ of congealed pneuma, located in the heart, that reconciles the division between the sensible and the intelligible. The Stoics would go on the rename this Mercurial (both volatile-subtle and fixed) Instrument, the Hegemonikon, the synthesizer or icon-maker. Whose function is to produce phantasms. The instrument through which the soul transmits all vital activities to the body and also the body’s way of capturing the sensations from the five senses and translating them into phantasms or images that could be understood by the soul.
The Lover longing loving unrequited. Smiling like she means it. Being-thrown into this World. Never fully at home, refracted, out of joint. That this affliction is our common inheritance. I think this is our patrimony. We are the heirs of this Abyss. It is to some degree I think fundamentally "Western" fundamentally "Romantic". Regardless of political opinion or alignment. It speaks to us. Through us. Perhaps it's because the Republic of Letters is largely comprised of Melancholic Perverts. Nostalgia or homesickness, as a longing for a reality which can only be possessed through the imagination and through the dream, the genuine site of anamnesis or recollection in the unreal. Evoking for us the movement of the soul described by the Venetian Magician-Philosopher Guilio Camillo; descending through the Lunar Gate of Cancer (of man), drinking from the cup of Bacchus and, depending on how much one imbibes, forgetting about all the things ‘up there’ before making our way back through the Saturnine Gate of Capricorn (of the gods). Tightrope walking to Luna. I see her so very clearly. My Corporeal Dasha, Giordano Bruno would rebuke me harshly, that I should Simp as I do for "these eyes, these ears, this blush, this tongue, this tooth, this hair, this dress, this coat, this little shoe .. . , this sun in eclipse, this crazy person, this slut, this stench, this deathbed, this privy, this mensturation, this corpse... which, by means of a superficial appearance, a shadow, a phantasm, a dream, a Circe-like charm in the service of procreation, deceives us by taking the form of beauty." Fuck it. Yet there is an Image behind the Image, a Woman behind my woman. The Platonic Dasha. Daria the Luminous Homunculi. Madonna Intelligenza who has served as a guide throughout this journey. “Keep your eyes on me.” I wobble on the tightrope, your eyes are what kept me, you and your rose-wreathed heart lit. A Unity-of-Opposites. Georges Bataille writes in The Sorcerer's Apprentice, “The image through which, in an instant, destiny has become alive thus finds itself projected into a world foreign to everyday agitation. The woman toward whom a man is draw, as to his human destiny, no longer belongs to the space that money controls. Her sweetness escapes the real world, through which she moves without allowing herself to be any more imprisoned than a dream. Misfortune would ravage the spirit anyone who lets himself be possessed by the need to reduce her.”
On Love Hegel writes, “Since love is a sensing of something living, lovers can be distinct only in so far as they are mortal and do not look upon this possibility of separation as if there were really a separation or as if reality were a sort of conjunction between possibility and existence. In the lovers there is no matter; they are a living whole.” That the Unity of Love is informed precisely by the division or difference between the Lover and the Beloved. The Union of Love, “…can remain so only as long as the separate lovers are opposed solely in the sense that the one loves and the other is loved, i.e., that each separate lover is one organ in a living whole.”
Here we might ponder Hegel’s Philosophy as a Philosophy of Death. The vespers-born melancholy conclusion is perhaps being that all Love is Unrequited. As Marsilio Ficino notes in his Commentary on Plato’s Symposium, “Insofar as it is death, it is bitter, and insofar it is voluntary, it is sweet. He who loves dies; for his consciousness, oblivious of himself, is devoted exclusively to the loved one, and a man who is not conscious of himself is certainly not conscious in himself. Therefore, a soul that is so affected, does not function in itself, because the primary function of the soul is consciousness…. Therefore, the unrequited lover lives nowhere; he is completely dead.”
Blue the color of Sulfur ignited. Blue the color of the Ocean of the Dead, of Dasein. The blue knees of a prayerful lover and the blue lips of the lovelorn fool, “Here’s to my love - O true apothecary! Thy drugs are quick. - Thus with a kiss I die.” That the smell of bitter almonds should remind the good doctor of unrequited love.
Such a melancholy conclusion can only be produced by a proper melancholic. Melancholy was regarded by Ficino as one of seven exemptions in which the bond between body and soul was weakened, allowing the soul to take flight and acquire the gifts of premonition and clairvoyance. Saint Albertus Magnus writes of the two kinds of melancholy. Hot melancholy and its two primary effects on the subject’s phantasmic activity he describes thusly,
“The first consists in the mobility of the phantasms within the subtle organism: the second, in the great capacity of phantasms to stay impressed upon the pneuma. This brings with it, besides a prodigious memory, an extraordinary capacity for analysis. This is why, Ficino tells us, 'all the great man who have ever excelled in an art have been melancholic. Either because they were born so or become so through assiduous meditation.”
Philosophy begins with this Unhappy Consciousness. The Alienated Soul lithe and loveless, which is the consciousness of self as a divided nature, a doubled and merely contradictory being. Dissatisfied with its Self and the World it retreats inward, like a Nymph fleeing Pan, fleeing into Reflection, which might likewise take the form of a fleeing into Nature (think Thoreau’s Walden). Herein is the mirk. This Narcissistic dialectic between Subject and Phantasmata. The Ouroboric Narcissism of the Beautiful Soul.
Another affliction associated with Melancholy is Hysteria. The Psychoanalyst Jacques Lacan refers to Hegel as the most Sublime Hysteric. The Hysteric asks questions because they experience their own desire as if it were the desire of the Other.
The Spirit retreats into a pre-rational state of life, a Life of Feeling, that this feeling expresses a movement in which the soul is no longer simply natural, but able to realize a mastery over itself.
“Finally, in the “feeling of self,” the individual becomes “a sensitive totality.” But the gradual formation of the ‘I’ is paradoxically accompanied by a loss of fluidity, leading to “ruin and disaster within the conscious spirit.” This crisis results from the fact that the subject, being constituted in a free relation to the self, feels at the same time like ‘another’, and this tension pushes it into a state of ‘trembling’ (durchzittern).” The Future of Hegel, Plasticity, Temporality, Dialectics, Catherine Malabou.
How does Hegel escape? Or perhaps more accurately how can we escape this trap? This Pneumatic Mirror-World. Of Subject-Mirror-Phantasmata. The Romantic Prison? Of one who learns of Love in order to be Loveless? Hold that thought.
Returning to the color blue, the psychologist James Hillman writes in Alchemical Psychology,
“This is the realm of the alchemical (kyanos, blue; kynos, dog); blue takes on a dog-like quality: hangdog and dirty dog, both. Why does depression seek porn? For arousal? For Eros and Priapos and Venus to come to life? Rather, I think, to maintain the depression, to re-direct the verticality of desire downward and backward (doggy fashion), clipping the wings of eros. Pornography - an opus contra naturam, a counter-instinct of the psyche, perverting the conventionally natural, enslaving, torturing; an erotics of despair.
To translate these esoteric references into the blue dog’s perverse obsessions we discover this: Invisible Hades appears in the world as Dionysus. There is a divine (i.e., invisible, unfathomable) impulse that seeks to enter ordinary life. It wants to know the soul in the Biblical sense. Carnal knowledge, intimate knowledge, knowledge of intimates. (Hence the innumerable images of copulation throughout alchemy.) The soul longs for this copulation, and sings its longing in the blues, blueing its own flesh, drawing the divine down into the ordinary body. (Hence the blues’ libidinous mood.)”
My Cup Overfloweth.
Pure thinking-subjectivity is phantasmological or hauntological. The role of the Phantasmata in the context of medieval philosophy, is described exquisitely by Mauricio Loza in The Hounds of Actaeon. The Phantasm or Phantom is understood “as a mental image with effects reaching not only the level of perception but that of social construction, the phantasm exists in the twilight between the objective and the subjectivity, the material and the immaterial, a zone of indistinction between reality and unreality. This is why the phantasm pulls us towards the twilight from whence it comes: Its central action is to drag us into the shadow of the world.”
Minerva’s Owls unfurls its wings only with the falling of dusk.
For the great Persian scholar Avicenna, sensory phantasms were processed through five virtues or powers corresponding to five cavities in the cranium; phantasy or common sense, imagination, cogitative virtue, the estimative virtue, and finally the reminiscent virtue. According to Georgio Agamben in his work Stanzas: Word and Phantasm in Western Culture, Avicenna conceives of this gradation through the inner senses as a "progressive 'disrobing' (denudatio) of the phantasm from its material accidents."
Material accidents in this instance, evoking the etymological origins and proliferation into common speech of the word "accident" itself.
Ad - 'towards to' and cadere - 'to fall'. The Latin Accident - 'happening' used in late Middle English to refer to 'an Event'. Used to refer to the parts of the sacred bread and wine that remained after the transubstantiation through the sacrament of The Holy Eucharist,
“Thus, throughout the history of Scholasticism we have to do with a sort of triangle of intellectual forces: Realism and Nominalism fighting a five hundred years’ war, and the Church, in its official capacity, anxiously endeavouring to hold the balance between them. One wonders whether the three parties to this ancient dispute may not have found symbolic expression in Tweedledum, Tweedledee, and the ‘Monstrous Crow’ of nursery legend. But it is no disparagement of the intellects of that day to say that to us the chief interest of their polemics lies in the many new and accurate instruments of thought with which they provided us. The common word accident is an excellent example. We use it every day without realizing that it was only imported from Latin by the indefatigable efforts of the Schoolmen to reconcile the doctrine of Realism with the Catholic dogma of Transubstantiation. The accidents, when they first came into the English language, meant that part of the sacred bread and wine which remained after the substance had been transmuted into the body and blood of Christ.” History in English Words, Owen Barfield
Here we see a process of Pneuma returning to Pneuma through this process of Rising and Falling. That the Absolute Idea is a Radiant Star. That the Phantasm undergoes a kind of purification process, from the sensible to the spiritual to the mnemonic. That this purification entails a kind of excremental remainder. A material accident. An excess which goes?
This brings to mind the question that the Sophist Parmenides (in Plato's Parmenides) raises to Socrates, which forces Socrates to admit to his own limitations. It utterly stumps the Apostate Tragedian. That being whether or not there is an eidos or Pure Idea of the lowest material things. Things like excrement and dust and I might add these eyes, these ears, this blush, this tongue, this tooth, this hair, this dress, this coat, this little shoe .. . , this sun in eclipse, this crazy person, this slut, this stench, this deathbed, this privy, this mensturation, this corpse...
The Ghost and The Star
Recall the episode with Hegel comparing stars to leprosy sores. This got out around town and Hegel found himself having to address this controversy,
"It has been rumoured round the town that I have compared the stars to a rash on an organism where the skin erupts in an countless mass of red spots: or to an ant-heap in which too, there is Understanding and necessity. In fact, I do rate what is concrete higher than what is abstract, and an animality that develops into no more than a slime, higher than the starry host."
The rock is a rock.
Hegel defines the Domain of Art as the “sensible appearing of the idea”… or the Idea given expression in Sensuous Form. This is to be understood as The Star shining through The Ghost. This opposition between Form and Content. This Contradiction is what animates the Motion of Spirit. From Art towards Philosophy.
She is and is not. Ah wait. I'm not her. But in this regard I am the same and suddenly the Ghost is Concretized.
Alexandre Kojève in his Lectures on the Phenomenology of Spirit writes,
"It is known that Hegel asserted that his knowledge is circular, and that circularity is the necessary and sufficient condition of absolute truth - that is, of complete, universal, and definitive (or "eternal") truth."
The Hysterics quandary finds some resolution. The question of the Other is reflexively transformed into the answer to the question.
"In the Wise Man's absolute Knowledge, each question is its own answer, but is so only because he goes through the totality of questions-answers that forms the entirety of the System. Likewise, in his existence, the Wise Man remains in identity with himself, he is closed up in himself; but he remains in identity with himself because he passes through the totality of others, and is closed up in himself. Which (according to the Phenomenology) means, quite simply, that the only man who can be Wise is a Citizen of the universal and homogeneous State - that is to say, the State of the Tun Aller und Jeder, in which each man exists only through and for the whole, and the whole exists through and for each man."
We return to Self-Consciousness. We're not the same. We're different. Tonight.
Eros pins Pan. Chronos clips Eros’ wings. Compulsion is overcome by Love. Love is overcome by Time. Love can only be actualized and concretized through Time. When it must Dwell in a given Space. This is the Poetic-Plasticity. This is the Commitment.
“Desire has reserved to itself the pure negating of the object and thereby unalloyed feeling of self. This satisfaction, however, just for that reason is itself only a state of evanescence, for it lacks objectivity or subsistence. Labour, on the other hand, is desire restrained and checked, evanescence delayed and postponed; in other words, labour shapes and fashions the thing.” (Phenomenology of Spirit)
We begin with the Problem of Love and in the Problem find the Solution. Love is the Answer to the Question of Love. Loving is to give what one does not have.
Our Unrequited Love is Mutual,
“In fact, there is only one death in mutual love, but there are two resurrections, for a lover dies within himself the moment he forgets about himself, but he returns to life immediately in his loved one as soon as the loved ones embraces him in loving contemplation. He is resurrected once more when he finally recognizes himself in his beloved and no longer doubts that he is loved. O, happy death, which is followed by two loves. O, wondrous exchange in which each gives himself up for the other, and has the other, yet does not cease to have himself.” Commentary on Plato's Symposium, Marsilio Ficino.
To be Overcome is to Animate. This is the Labor of Love. Productive Labor as Art.
You understand why Hegel is so very frustrating? In his System. In the Movement from East to West back East. We find the Heiros Gamos, the Sacred Matrimony of Eros and Sophia, and in this Unity of Opposites the philosopher becomes the Sage. In the production of this Heiros Gamos, Hegel's System becomes the Perfect Pneumatic Circle.
​
I make of Nietzsche a traveling companion through Hegel’s Aesthetics. Why? Because The Birth of Tragedy is crudely Hegelian. Here we find ourselves encountering what is so very frustrating about Hegel and his Pneumatic Circle, his method and his system. From the occultists perspective this is because Hegel’s System is an Artifice of Sacral or Mythic Time, of Cyclical Time. The genuinely infuriating thing is realizing that the Artifice, the “Copy” is in fact the original. This is why some speak of the feminizing effect of Hegel. Feminizing in the way Achilles’ is feminized by Scamander. That not only do we never step in the same river twice and that the river is the site of the Doom-driven Hero’s self-fulfilling prophesy.
As Nietzsche himself puts it, “one cannot refute an eye disease.” I thought it would be stimulating to read The Birth of Tragedy through the lens of Hegel’s Lectures on Aesthetics. Framing Nietzsche and his insights within a Hegelian Tableaux. Nietzsche who denounces Metaphysical Systematization. Demurely objecting he says, “unhand me woman,” with a little blush. Does he mean it? I don’t think it was Hegel’s Dialectical Method or Logic that Nietzsche objected too. Denouncing instead the refraction between the Philosopher and the Logic (an ironic detachment)… that the Philosopher and his Logic are not two separate beings. That for him the Philosopher is Alkahest or Universal Solvent. Body and Soul collapse into a singularity, Art and Artists. No, in a sense Nietzsche celebrates the animating antagonism at the Heart of Hegel’s work. That this refraction is what results in the System which Nietzsche saw as modeling contemporary German Bourgeois fearfulness and timidity simply solidifies into Consensus. “I’m old and I don’t want to be alone.” That the System should be a kind of Metaphysical Prison concretized around the Fiery Pneuma, the brilliance of Hegel’s Esprit.
The application of the Dialectical Method is evidenced throughout The Birth of Tragedy; The Apollonian thesis, the Dionysian antithesis, the Tragic synthesis. Or perhaps in a manner more accurate to Hegel; The Dionysian Abstract, the Apollonian Negation, the Tragic Negation-of-Negation, and the Socratic Concretization.
The section dedicated to a retrospective appraisal of The Birth of Tragedy in Ecce Homo, Nietzsche concludes that all the good things he had ever written about Richard Wagner were actually about him. He was talking about himself the whole time without even realizing it, “"Even psychologically all decisive traits of my own nature are projected into Wagner’s - the close proximity of the brightest and the most calamitous forces, the will to power as no man ever possessed it, the ruthless courage in matters of the spirit, the unlimited power to learn without damage to the will to act.” Poor Nietzsche he who was too high-strung for his own good. Comes to a conclusion paralleling Hegel as it concerns Art, specifically Music. Perhaps one day, there will be Dionysian future for music. But for now, the Pneuma roils through space-and-time, and it culminates in Nietzsche or Zarathustra, as the Last Philosopher or the first Tragic Philosopher. Who despite all the aristocratic pretensions cannot help but write in a popular and accessible manner. Writing into motion the conditions for the Dionysian resurgence he had once thought was being spearheaded by the compositions of Richard Wagner.
He goes so far as to be both Beethoven and Goethe’s response to Beethoven in the anticipation of his works and in the need for them to remain ‘exclusive’ despite their undeniably popular character. Goethe in his old age weeping softly to Beethoven’s sonatas, proclaims “If such music were performed by a large orchestra, it would destroy everything around it.”
The stylish and inspirited Vitalism of Nietzsche’s ruminations is Pneumatic. A red dot in the center of a dark blue sphere.
Dialectics reveals an Infinite Spiral. The Circle divided by a straight-line. Containing the spiral. The straight-line breaks through the circle. Above and Below. Revealing three other spheres. Above the configuration one spiral. Beneath it two spirals; one winding up and the other winding down. On a Hegelian theological note. God the Father and God the Holy Spirit proceed from God the Son. “In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God.” John 1:1.
Here we might locate the Traumatic Temporality of Christianity. The introduction of History. Time as Chronos. With God the Son. Without the historical personage of Jesus Christ, there wouldn’t be a Trinitarian Unity and Division. From God the Son proceeds God the Father and God the Holy Spirit. In this wound we are brought to an awareness of another Time. A Timeless-Time or a Time sans History. “In the Beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God,” a time in which God the Father, God the Son, God the Holy Spirit had always been. The Triune God. Whether or not, in this Aionic Time, God the Holy Spirit proceeds from God the Father or from God the Father and God the Son, is the division between East and West.
This Times overlap and nowhere is this more evident than in the anachronisms or perhaps more accurately, the Archeo-modernity, of the romantic painting. Or perhaps further still, in the Ethiopian depiction of Christ, in the Korean depiction of Christ, and in the Italian depiction of Christ. Black Jesus, Asian Jesus, and European Jesus.
As that obscure note by Nietzsche produced by Gilles Deleuze in his work Nietzsche and Philosophy goes, “Universal chaos which excluded all purposeful activity does not contradict the idea of the cycle; for this idea is only an irrational necessity.” Here we see Nietzsche approaching something akin to the Infinite Dialectic realized and developed in Mao Zedong’s contributions to Dialectical and Historical Materialism. As Mao writes in On Contradiction, “The universality or absoluteness of contradiction has a twofold meaning. One is that contradiction exists in the process of development of all things, and the other is that in the process of development of each thing a movement of opposites exists from beginning to end.”
The stylish and inspirited Vitalism of Nietzsche’s ruminations is Pneumatic. Being Pneumatic it is Phantasmic. Here we locate the Girardian critique of Nietzsche. As Nietzsche proclaims in Ecce Homo that everything his was praising Wagner for is in fact praise he was unconsciously directing at himself, at his values or innate dignities, the obverse is true. For Nietzsche every great philosophical work is a confessional, an involuntary and unconscious autobiography. He invents the Overman and by extension the Last Man. Will to Power and Ressentiment. One cannot exist without the other and in Nietzsche they collapse into a singularity (a point worth keeping in mind when we eventually venture into Deleuze and his Anti-Hegelianism). The Last Philosopher. In sum Girard’s contention is that in the production of these Phantasmata, Nietzsche ends up offering to his audience another Scapegoat. The Man of Ressentiment and the Slave Morality. Obviously within Nietzsche the potential for this is treated triumphantly. Nietzsche refuses to have his Poetic Revelry stifled by timorous considerations. That stupid people might read his works and take it as an excuse to persecute Christians or to locate the Man of Ressentiment in their political adversaries. That they might completely forget the contradictions inherent to the very office of “Tragic Philosopher” and how the Vagabond and the Prophet are a singular figure, hybrid and lovelorn and glorious. “If I had power I’d know how to immediately and brutally exercise it.” None of this concerns Nietzsche. People will misinterpret you regardless. Still the points are well worth reflecting on and prove stimulating as we move from the Symbolic-Classical to the Classical-Romantic.

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Frequently Asked Questions

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This is a normal step in the process, this means your parcel is somewhere between Valve's warehouse and your delivery providers first sorting hub. Parcels are not scanned until they reach this hub, and therefore it can show as pre-advice / awaiting parcel even if they do currently have the parcel.
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This usually changes within 1 working day, though don't be alarmed as it can take up to 3 working days (working days, Mon-Fri). If it's been longer than that, you should contact [Steam Support](https://help.steampowered.com/en/).
​
Do FedEx/GLS/ParcelForce deliver on Sundays?
​
[FedEx delivers to \~80% of the US population on a Sunday.](https://www.fedex.com/en-us/shipping/saturday-and-sunday-delivery.html#Sunday)
​
In Europe, as with most delivery companies, GLS (& ParcelForce) does not typically deliver on a Sunday. They may do so in times of peak demand (around Christmas), but outside of this it's unlikely.
​
Both FedEx and GLS do deliver on Saturdays though!
​
(UK) My parcel is stuck in customs, what do I do?
​
This can happen in both the RMA and delivery process, but this will usually be sorted and cleared through customs after a short delay. In uncommon cases, it may take longer (on a scale of working days), but will still clear.
​
However, if at any point the tracking says that additional information is required, please contact [Steam Support](https://help.steampowered.com/en/).
​
(UK) My parcel hasn't updated from the Netherlands in several days, should I be concerned?
​
No, you should not be concerned. This is because there is no tracking update between it leaving the Netherlands Hub, and it arriving in the UK for customs checks. Depending on several events outside of the control of GLS/ParcelForce, there are many different reasons why this could take a long period of time.
​
My Steam Deck is delayed, I'm annoyed!
​
Sorry to hear that your Steam Deck has been delayed. Unfortunately, as with any delivery service, it's possible for issues and delays to occur during the delivery process.
​
So long as your shipping provider is giving you frequent updates, and has not elapsed more than 5 working days without an update, hang tight!
​
If you haven't received an update in over 5 working days (Mon-Fri), please contact [Steam Support](https://help.steampowered.com/en/).
​
My Steam Deck is broken/stolen/lost from delivery, help!
​
You should contact [Steam Support](https://help.steampowered.com/en/) as soon as possible so that a replacement can be arranged.
​
​
/

You suddenly see through
Darkness of shady night
You are That!
We won’t put a name on it…
Or we’ll seek to label without any shame about it…
That You are right and true!
Full of energy
And delight!
✨✨⭐️🌟💫☄️💥🔥💥☄️💫🌟⭐️✨✨
A magnificently,
marvelously,
magnanimously,
magickally-wrought
Slivered expression of ”the Self”
Manifested in this
“Terra of Tangibility”
This Very-Now Place
Where you couldn’t be anyone else!
🧝🏻‍♀️🧜🏿‍♀️🦹🏾🧙🏼‍♀️🧚🏿🧚🏻‍♀️🧚🏼‍♂️🧞‍♀️🧞🧞‍♂️🧌🧙🏿‍♂️🦸🏻‍♂️🧜🏽‍♂️
So, be soothed of sonorous sorrow
And fundamental fear
You are every Villain, yes,
but also every Hero
Every Hunter and bear and deer.
Every Suicide and it’s accompanying Nero
Everything between 1 and 0
And you have always been here
🌲🌿🌱🦌🐻🏹🧝🏻‍♀️🍃🧝🏻‍♂️🏹🐻🦌🌱🌿🌲
This must seem strange
How tremendously
But also so little
This knowledge might change
All the mishaps and misfortunes
Becoming their calls
Within walls
Of future experience’s range
💗💜💙💚💛🧡❤️❤️‍🔥❤️🧡💛💚💙💜💗
You will stress
You will worry
You will slip silvery tongues
And make a mess
Move your
Psychological
Piece of Chess
Across the Angler Fish aboard
In awesome
Anxious
Worry
You will weep
And moan
Apologetically alone
You will wail
And you also will
Still
Try your hardest
Only to
Repeatedly fail
💗💜💙💚💛🧡❤️❤️‍🔥❤️🧡💛💚💙💜💗
So, that this all
As earnest truth, then
You are both
The One who Commands any falling
And the One who Has ”the Fall“
The Great Collected
And “Interstellarly Interconnected”
Never faltered or stalling
And intertwined
As much as anything can
Interchangeably
You are the grand “godhead”
But you are also duality
And you are allowed to be human
Life will toss and turn for you
Upon your sacred sanctuary,
it will bang up!
But you can trust in Yourself
Because
You are You
The Song Within You Had Sang Up
Nameless
Blameless
Shameless
And no doubt,
without any hang up!
💜💙💚💛🧡❤️❤️‍🔥❤️🧡💛💚💙💜💗
You are every and all mothers
And every last father
All the sons
And every single daughter
Brothers with Earth
And Sisters with Sky
Friends and cousins
With Fire and Water
You are the Creator!
You are the *Creating!
You are the *Created!
You are the Creation!
Everything alive within every nation
And every particulate parcel of matter
You cause all things to shiver
And in frightfulness, scatter!
In breath-defying anticipation! ;P
You are the dusk
You are the dawn
You are the dew upon the lawn
You are the Sun-scorched Day
You are the Lunar-lit Night
You are the ”You”
Unchained
And unstained
From all toxic guilt
Radically forgiven and self-loving
Unconditionally
With all Your might!
You are full of righteousness and truth,
my darlings,
and you are full of energy and delight!

The street party was vibrant, but I was really there to check out Deep Thinkers. Was great to meet adelaide artist and curator Azzurro and they have put so much effort into putting the whole thing together. They even custom painted the walls of the Alimentary cafe to match the hangings and included the artist details on the wall.
Met Jade Mars one of the artists and her work was awesome, even used augmented reality where you hold your phone up to the artwork and take a shot on insta and it animates the work on your phone, totally awesome.
The diverse range of works was great, and are a credit to the artists involved.
The street party was cool and bumped into a friend or two, but my main reason for going was Deep Thinkers and the hour each way on public transport was worth it.
The Mount Lofty Jetty artwork made me giggle, but all of the works were inspiring.
There is a virtual exhibition on the link-tree so you can see the artwork online.
https://linktr.ee/deepthinkers
Alimentary are open tonight if you want to pop down to check it out and the Deep Thinkers exhibition is doing a one nighter at the Marine Discovery Centre, Henley Beach next Friday.
Was a great adventure :) 5 out of 5 Leafy Sea Dragons.

I used to pitch my tent wherever. If it looked interesting, I was setting up camp. I kept a tent at the ready in my trunk. There’s nothing exciting about a park; there’s no adventure in that. I didn’t camp out near someone’s house or anything like that, but I have found myself in some precarious situations. The worst yet, happened in East Tennessee.
I was traveling back to campus after spring break. There’s a spot of hills that I’ve always thought interesting. Between those hills runs a long valley. As I drive back and forth between Knoxville and Nashville, I always tell myself that I’m going to camp in that spot, but I never do it. I’m always pressed for time. I never leave in time though. Class is always the next day. Lost in music, I started ruminating on how boring my life had become. To hell with it, I was going to do it. I didn’t much care to do Calculus at eight in the morning anyway. I could afford to miss one day.
I pulled over to the side of the interstate, got my tent and backpack, and started hiking downhill to the valley. It was still early afternoon. The sun was still high enough in the sky to illuminate my way. The vegetation was thick. There was no human-made trail, no way to easily traverse the terrain. As I hiked through the briars and whipping branches, I reminded myself to buy a machete for instances such as these.
I found a perfect spot under a thicket of red cedars, with a nice flat area and no undergrowth. I pitched my tent and laid out my sleeping bag. I didn’t carry much on these excursions. I had a backpack with some crackers, a knife, lighter and a flashlight. It was usually a one-night affair and I’m gone the next morning. I spent most of the day exploring, but on this occasion, I was a little late. My main desire was to hike to the top of the largest hill to see the view and discover what was on the other side.
It took me about an hour and a half to make it up the hill. There on the other side was a wide expanse of nothing but trees. It looked like a green shag carpet rolled out across the landscape. I noticed directly at the bottom of the hill was an old wooden shed. What an odd place for a shed. The sun was farther down but I still had time to check it out.
I descended down to the other side of the hill, with a little haste. I wanted to make it back to my tent before it got too dark, but I couldn’t pass up this opportunity. My curiosity piqued. I was excited for some adventure. I got to the shed, opened the door and walked straight in without surveying the inside first. I felt the earth beneath my feet give way, my gut lifting up as if on a roller coaster, and then fell hard to the ground, breaking my tibia. The pain was excruciating. I rolled around in agony, feeling the dirt and rocky bottom. I looked up and realized I had fallen down into a deep hole, not so deep that I couldn’t see the shed walls. The shed was only big enough to encompass and hide the hole. The hole seemed to be about twenty feet deep, no way to climb out and escape. There was still enough light to see up top, but down in the hole it was dark.
“We’re dead. You know that don’t you?”
I was startled. Someone else was down in the hole with me. I grabbed my flashlight out of my backpack. There on the other side of the hole was a young woman. Her whole being- body, face, and clothes were filthy with dirt and grime. Her lips were dried up and cracked.
“You almost hit me. Watch where you’re falling next time,” she said with a weak chuckle.
“How long have you been here?”
“I don’t know. I’m in and out of consciousness. Sometimes I wake up and think I’m home in bed, then realize I’m in this damned hole.”
“How did you get here?”
“I was abducted… and you?”
“I was camping and found this shed.”
She laughed. “So, you saw a creepy shed in the woods and went to see what was inside. Man, you’re a dumb fuck.”
“There’s no way out of here?”
“No, I’ve tried. Nothing we can do. I know you’re hurt pretty bad. I heard your leg snap as you fell. Man, what a sound. I hate to say this, but I’m glad you’re here though. I was getting lonely. I don’t mean I want you to go through what I’ve been through. I mean, I’m just glad you’re not him. Well, might as well introduce myself since we’re going to be spending a lot of time together. My name is Mary.” She widened her eyes and tilted her head forward, trying to evoke a response.
“I’m Gary.”
My leg was bent awkwardly, but no bone was exposed. Even though there was just me and Mary in the hole there were piles of clothing, a thrift store in the middle of the woods. I grabbed some blue jeans and a tee shirt. I tied it tight around my shin. I didn’t know how to make a tourniquet or even if I should. I just wanted to stabilize my leg the best I could.
There was an uneasy silence. What do you talk about when you are trapped in a hole?
“Him… you said him. It’s just the one guy?”
“Yeah, but I don’t know if I would call him a guy.”
“What do you mean?”
“You’ll see.”
“What do you mean? Does he come down into the hole?”
“Yes, and he takes you out of the hole and does things to you… experiments.”
“Then that’s our chance. That’s our only chance, is to knock the shit out of this fucker and get out of here. He’s not expecting me. He doesn’t know I’m down here.”
I started formulating a plan. There were enough clothes that I could hide underneath, and I had my knife.
“Mary, I want you to move forward. I’ll pack some clothes behind you. I’ll be buried underneath with my knife. You lean back on that pile… you know like you had made yourself a comfortable little bed or something. Ok?” She nodded her head. “When does he usually come?”
“I don’t know but it’s pretty regular.”
“How does he get down here?”
“He has a rope ladder.”
“Is he big? Have you ever tried to fight him… to escape?”
“No, he has some…” she hesitated, “some kind of power. It freezes me. I can’t move. I hear a ringing in my head and then I’m paralyzed. Don’t let him see you. We’ll know when he’s approaching. There’s always a humming sound and a clicking.”
I wasn’t believing anything she was saying. She had been trapped in a dark hole for who knows how long. She was losing her mind, starved of vital nutrients. Her imagination had started to create a different reality for her, one that I was unwilling to participate in.
I laid against the wall of the hole on my side. My broken leg was throbbing, as it was laying on the floor with my other leg on top. I couldn’t switch around though. I had to be facing the side the hole he would be climbing down. Mary threw a bunch of the clothing on top of me, leaving my face exposed so that I could breathe and not get too hot. I held my knife up to my chest. It was the old-fashioned survival knife, with a compass on the handle. I had long since lost the matches and string that came with the knife, tucked away in the hollow of the handle. But for my present purposes, the blade was, hopefully, all I needed. Mary leaned back against me. We waited.
After a while, I heard a humming and a clicking. The thought ran through my head that maybe Mary wasn’t crazy after all.
“He’s coming.”
“I know. Go ahead and cover my face.”
The humming subsided, but the clicking grew louder. I heard the door open, then the unrolling of the rope ladder with the wooden rungs tapping out a rhythm as it fell to the floor of the hole. Mary started to whimper in fear. I heard the man make his way down and then the thump of his feet as he jumped to the bottom. The hole lit up with a blue light. I felt Mary’s body go limp and then I felt her lifted up off of me. I slowly, quietly pushed away the shirt that was covering my face.
The man had his back towards me with Mary slumped over his shoulder. He was about to climb up out of the hole. He wasn’t that tall, but thick like a Neanderthal. He wore all black, with a long sleeve turtle-neck shirt. He was bald, but the oddest thing was where the blue light was emanating from. What skin I could see, on his head and his irregularly long hands, was glowing blue.
I was scared as hell. What was I about to tangle with? Yet, I knew now more than ever this was our only chance. I let him climb a few rungs before I sprung out and hobbled as fast as I could to the other side of the hole. He didn’t hear me. I know I had made too much noise, but he never reacted. I shoved my knife into his lower back. The clicking grew loud. I grabbed his shirt and yanked him down the ladder, pulling my knife out of his back, and thrusting it in the back of his neck. Mary fell hard to the ground.
He turned his head revealing large black eyes, devoid of pupils. He didn’t have a nose. His mouth was huge with mandibles projecting from each side. The mandibles fluttered angrily, clicking and humming, increasing in frequency. He, or it, pushed me to the ground, pulling my knife out of his neck and throwing it to the ground. It looked into my eyes, making a hypnotic contact that I could not shake. I heard a ringing in my head and my body went limp. I had no control over my limbs. I was frozen to the bottom of the hole, my plan unraveling.
Everything was a haze. I was barely cognizant of my surroundings so I don’t know when or how Mary regained consciousness, but I could see her sneaking toward the knife. My vision was blurry. I was fighting to not to pass out. I saw Mary get the knife and move quickly toward the being. She grabbed a handful of dirt and slung it at his head. He turned and she landed the knife in his face. He pivoted back toward me, and I could see she had stabbed him directly in one of his eyes. Black and crimson fluid streamed down his face. I could feel my body again, slowly able to move my limbs. I got up as fast as my recovering body would allow and started towards the ladder.
“Go Mary. Go, go, go. Get the hell out of here!”
She went up first and I followed pushing her in the rear as we went up. We were half-way when I felt him grab my broken leg. I shrieked; the pain was unbearable. I instinctively kicked with my other leg and landed a shot to his mouth, breaking off one of his mandibles. The creature fell back down into the hole. Mary and I made it out of the hole and quickly pulled up the ladder.
The creature recovered from its fall. Realizing it was trapped, it tried frantically to climb up the wall. I was relieved to see that it didn’t have any power of flight or levitation or some other weird alien power that would get him out of the hole. Mary and I watched as the blue shimmer of light banged against the walls, like a firefly stuck in a mason jar. There was nothing to do but leave it there and hope it starved to death.
It took forever, but we finally made it to my car. Mary drove me to the nearest hospital. She called the police and told them that we had escaped from an assailant with long black hair and a big bushy beard. I don’t know what else she could say. Who would believe the truth? She pushed the officials in a different direction from the shed, claiming that we had escaped from a house somewhere about ten miles from the actual location. I suspected she knew more than what she was saying, or even more than what she had told me. Maybe she knew that the creature would no longer be there, that something would have come and retrieved him. I don’t know. I do know that I never travel that way anymore and I sure as hell don’t ever go camping. Gaming is all the adventure I need.

Finding this subreddit has been so therapeutic and validating for me. I’m 26, married to the love of my life (32M) with the most amazing 5yo stepdaughter.
Reading all of your stories has inspired me to sit down and type out my own. I must warn you, there are times when I am the villain. Buckle up. This is a small novel.
If we start at the very beginning, my DH began dating HCBM (33) when they were very young in their early 20s. Shortly into their relationship it became clear to DH that she was struggling with very severe alcoholism. I cannot even begin to write out all of the stories I have heard from DH about her alcoholism. He was very young, didn’t have a positive model for a healthy relationship as a child. He believed he could help HCBM. They were extremely on and off together for almost 7 years. Every time he’d try to break up with her she would weasel her way back in. She would go as far as showing up at his family events because she had his family wrapped around her finger (don’t worry, that changed. Read on.) She almost drank herself to death several times. The police in her town know her by name and recognize her car because her family has had to call in for welfare checks so many times. She’s had bits where she’s gone missing for several hours. Been listed as a missing person. Had the police ping her phone. I’ve read the police reports myself.
Where do I even begin with her family? Her parents are extremely proud. They own two businesses in their small town. They’re the kind of people who are very obsessed with image and making people think they’re wealthy. HCBM started drinking when she was 16. Her parents would deal with her problem by sweeping it under the rug and hiding it. They cared more about their pride than getting her the help she needed. When they were together, my DH was often the one who would drive her to AA meetings. HCBM didn’t like AA because she felt she was above the other people there. Her family now despises my DH, and weaves a narrative that she drank because of her toxic relationship with him. Though her drinking problems existed long before and after their relationship.
I’ll share a few stores in particular with the goal of establishing the absolute delusion that HCBM feeds to anyone who will listen about my DH.
There was one evening where they were at my DH’s uncle’s house in the city. The thing about HCBM is that you never saw her drink until she was drunk. She’d sneak in a bathroom or what have you to drink. DH and HCBM got into some kind of argument and she ran off into the city late at night. DH spent several hours driving around the city searching for her until he finally found her in a bar, making out with a random guy. He said “you can take her home tonight” and left. Several hours later in the wee hours of the morning, HCBM stumbled back to the uncle’s house, wasted and crying.
Another occasion, DH was at work and HCBM was at his apartment (she did not live there) and went to hang out with his upstairs neighbors who were girls. She got drunk with them. When DH got home, he tried to explain to his neighbors that she had a problem and shouldn’t be drinking…. They said “don’t control her! That’s manipulative”. DH went back downstairs, HCBM followed, and they fought. She ran back to the neighbors crying and the girls stormed down into his apartment saying “What did you do to her? What did you do to her?!”
A different time HCBM was drunk she had locked herself in DH’s roommate’s room. He was trying to explain to her that she needed to come out, that it wasn't his room and she couldn’t be in there. HCBM called DH’s mom (now my MIL) and began wailing “he’s doing it again, he’s being crazy again!” God knows what she was talking about. Eventually DH called HCBM’s dad who came to pick her up. HCBM’s dad dragged her by her arm down the stairs rather roughly, and DH got upset, like “hey I get that she is drunk and being a problem but you can’t manhandle her like that” so HCBM’s dad responded my shoving DH up against a wall and holding his arm to his throat.
Shall I go on? There are dozens more. The worst is yet to come.
Anyways, about four years into their relationship, after multiple incidents of infidelity on her part, DH started chatting with other women sporadically. He says he knew it was wrong, but he thought if he could show himself there were other women out there who could make him happy, other stable relationships he could be in, he might be able to get away from HCBM. It was about five years into their relationship that DH actually cheated. And so begins HCBM’s favorite narrative, that DH was an awful, unsupportive unfaithful partner who drove her to drinking because he was so shady. She will never, ever consider the fact that my DH to this day is traumatized from their relationship. He’s been in therapy several times and every single therapist identifies her as a narcissist.
Several years ago when DH and I met I was in college. We had an on and off fling for a while on the coattails of him trying to end it with HCBM once and for all after over six years stuck in a cycle. I think my DH made poor decisions, dumb even. But I sympathize with the trauma bond he was stuck in with this woman, and how difficult it was for him to cut ties with someone who would go to great lengths to insert herself in his life, and with the pressure of his family saying he should be with her. He cut things off with me and fell back in with HCBM. Lo and behold… HCBM gets pregnant. This may be shocking…. But it was not a good situation to be bringing a baby into. HCBM was 28 at the time. She was (and still is) working for her mom at the business she owns because she had gotten fired from every other job for showing up drunk. A side note, her mom owns a gymnastics center where she is a teacher. My DH has told me about several times her mother would text him to come pick her up because she’d shown up drunk. Her mom would get her out of there and just sub in another instructor to cover her ass. Anyways, DH was terrified. However, DH grew up without a father, so there was no way he wasn’t going to be involved in his child’s life. It is an impossible thing to talk about in hindsight because I love my SD so dearly, she turns mine and DH’s world. But DH told HCBM to terminate initially. And to be fair, he was right. It was not a stable situation to bring a child into. Would I reverse time and change anything? Never in a million years.
As you may have guessed, HCBM decided to keep the baby. She repeatedly told DH that if he left, he would not see his child. DH was stuck and miserable. During her pregnancy, while HDBM was parading about as if they were this cute happy couple, DH began to miss me. He realized he had real feelings for me, and he reached out. I loved him the moment I met him, so I was thrilled. I’ll keep this part concise; DH began cheating on HCBM with me, and I knew. It was an ugly decision on both of our parts. Despite how much I loathe HCBM, she is a person. She did not deserve that. DH and I are both pretty ashamed about our choices back then. I’ll go into detail later about how both DH and I have tried to atone for our actions.
When she was about 7 months pregnant, HCBM caught on and contacted me. Those conversations are forever burned in my mind. She said some of the most disconnected, ridiculous shit I’ve ever seen. She was obsessed with the image she was trying to portray to everyone about her life. I’ll never forget one conversation where we were discussing their daughter’s impending arrival… I had said something along the lines of “do you think it’s wise to bring a child into this situation,” and she said “I have lots of help. I’m old enough.”
“I’m old enough.”
Like she’s a kid trying to convince her parents to let her stay out past midnight.
DH and I broke things off before SD arrived. I was heartbroken, but let’s be real, that was a mess. An entire mess.
Still, HCBM thought it was just a brilliant idea for her and DH to move in together. So her parent’s rented them a house in their small town…. DH kept paying the rent on his apartment the city about 45 minutes away. DH has told me how miserable their relationship was, and HCBM knew all about his affair with me. But like I said, she was desperately trying to create this pretend life for herself.
SD arrives, a day I am so glad to celebrate each year. She is truly the joy of my life. DH cried more than she did. He was instantly in love with his baby girl.
About three weeks later, HCBM is back on the bottle.
DH told me about how he’d come home from work and find her drunk. She’d grab the baby and lock herself in a bedroom and cry. DH feared for his child’s safety.
HCBM was only able to breastfeed for a month or so because she stopped producing milk due to heinous dieting. She was obsessed with getting back to her pre-pregnancy weight. She would eat only miso soup for days on end. This poor relationship to food comes into play later. HCBM’s mother was always over at the house. Cleaning up, buying them things. Contributing to the facade.
DH was severely depressed. He continued to stay with HCBM to monitor her drinking and watch out for his daughter. They got to a point where DH would sleep on the couch. One night DH came home and HCBM was drunk again with SD in her care. DH called her parents who came rushing over to remedy the situation as they always do. Shortly after they arrived, HCBM had slumped over on the couch and became unresponsive. An ambulance was called. DH says it was one of his most traumatic memories holding his baby daughter watching the EMT’s resuscitate her mother wondering how he would raise this girl on his own.
After a hospital stay, HCBM returned home and her parents ordered pizza and put on a movie and pretended as if nothing had happened. That was the routine. When DH expressed his anger, his justifiable concern for what was going on, HCBM’s parents treated him as though he was the problem, he was an asshole for bringing it up and blaming her.
It wasn’t long after this, SD must’ve been around eight months old that HCBM was on a binge and DH returned home from work to find the house empty. He frantically began calling people to locate SD when HCBM’s parents informed him that she was with them, and that HCBM had crawled out a window and was missing. A missing person’s report was filed. HCBM’s father told police to check ditches and park benches, as she could often be found there. She turned out to be at some random man’s house, and was located about 36 hours later.
DH was at the end of his ropes. He took the police report and lawyered up secretly.
Here’s a fun new component to the story, remember how I said that DH had began sleeping on the couch? In said police report, it is documented that DH and HCBM were not in a relationship and were merely roommates. Because that was the situation. Behind the scenes, HCBM had met the man of her dreams. Let’s call him PF….. for psycho fiance. Yes, they’re engaged now. We’ll get to that part. PF randomly messaged HCBM on facebook and they began talking. PF was a recovering alcoholic in his 30s with no driver’s license due to a DUI.
Now, recall when HCBM was missing? Her parents searched through her facebook accounts to try and locate her and found her messages with PF, they explained their daughter’s drinking problem and asked PF if she may be with him. She was not. They had not even met yet. But PF thinks this woman who clearly has severe personal issues is just the cream of the crop. He decides to take her out to lunch. By the end of their lunch date, he is love-bombing the daylights out of her. Calling her his wife, his galaxy, all of this grandiose crap.
Two weeks after they met, PF got HCBM’s name tattooed on him. While DH was trying to sort out a plan of action with his lawyer…. HCBM informs him that he has to move out so that PF can move in because he will soon be without a place to live. She wants to invite this man she’s known for three weeks to live with her and her baby daughter. I’ve seen the message she sent to DH, it reads, “I know it seems fast but I know in my heart that he is so good.” HCBM’s parents are thrilled.
Less than a week after PF had moved in and DH was out, the ex parte motion was filed. DH was granted full emergency custody of SD until a hearing could be held. HCBM did not see SD for nine days… and of course, DH was the villain for this.
At the hearing. DH was awarded majority custody, with HCBM being allowed one overnight a week. PF was not permitted to be present when SD was there for overnights until CPS could investigate.
Now, HCBM’s parents funneled money for lawyers, rent, utilities, basically any adult expense HCBM needs is taken care of by her parents. DH did not have the same luxury. He was working himself to death as a single dad trying to pay for his lawyer while the court battle ensued. Almost two months later, DH contacted me. We hadn’t spoken in close to a year. I was off living my own life almost halfway through college. DH just needed someone to talk to about it, and still had very strong feelings for me. I was a shoulder for him to lean on.
We began hooking up, with no real intention to enter into a relationship. I met SD and would watch her while he was at work. There was an obvious deep love between DH and me, but the circumstances were just so insane. Plus, HCBM despised me, and was weaving stories to the court about how DH was an emotionally abusive partner, a narcissist and the reason for all her drinking.
DH and I did not want the drama of HCBM knowing I was around. Since we were operating under the guise that this was just an indulgence and would end at some point, we kept our interactions a secret.
Then, the universe must’ve thought we were owed some karma for what we did during HCBM’s pregnancy. I was diagnosed with ADHD at age five and have had a prescription for stimulants since a very young age.
One morning I awoke and heard what sounded like tiny wretching from the other room. My medication had spilled out in the bottom of my purse as the safety cap was screwed on crooked. SD was playing on the floor and digging around in my purse. DH noticed her putting something in her mouth, realized it was my medication and immediately ran into the bathroom and began making her puke.
I called poison control who instructed us to bring her to the hospital. She seemed relatively normal, a bit dazed maybe. We called the ER to let them know we’d be arriving. We got there and they stuck charcoal down her throat, drew blood, the whole ordeal.
I brought my medication bottle with me to give to the nurses so they knew what she had ingested and to prove it was a legally obtained prescription. I was frantic and bawling, a nurse comforted me and told me that ingestions are extremely common and we had done the right thing by bringing her in.
SD had an elevated heart rate, was fussy and stressed. She was administered medication to help lower her heart rate and as a result had to be admitted to be monitored. The blood tests came back with extremely minimal amounts of my meds in her system, but it was protocol that she be monitored after the medication was given to regulate her heart. If you’re feeling anxious, I’ll add that SD is perfectly healthy and happy, she fully recovered and did not suffer any seizures or damage to her brain/liver etc. which were the primary concerns with this ingestion.
Since she was being admitted, HD had to inform HCBM. I had told him he should tell her immediately, but he did not want to deal with her reaction or her family arriving. I think this was a poor decision on his part. As flawed a person as she is, I do know that HCBM loves SD very much, and I can sympathize with her wanting to be informed if her daughter was being seen at the hospital.
HCBM and her family arrived, I had left to avoid the fallout and gather some things for DH to drop off while he stayed at the hospital with SD. Naturally, HCBM was in a blind rage that she had not been contacted immediately. She demanded that the CPS worker who was mandated to check in because of the ingestion file a report of negligence. The CPS worker declined, saying that there was no negligence to report. That evening, security was called to remove HCBM from the hospital because she was screaming at DH in the pediatric wing. She was told she could return on her custody day.
I went to visit DH and SD the next day, she was back to her old self and able to go home. We were nowhere near prepared for what was about to ensue.
HCBM had weaved a story that I was addicted to drugs, and that whatever I was doing had to have been in a plastic bag in my purse or how else would SD have gotten into it? HCBM and her lawyer filed an ex parte motion. Now I’m sure most of you are familiar with the workings of family court, but for those of you who aren’t; and ex parte motion is an emergency motion. It is a piece of paper laid in front of a judge. The details can be as vague or exaggerated as the writer pleases them to be, and it is not until a hearing is scheduled can anything be disputed.
HCBM and her lawyer claimed that SD had ‘overdosed’ on stimulant drugs and conveniently failed to mention that they were a legal prescription. More than that, ‘overdose’ was a completely sensationalized description of what had occurred, and not a term used at all by any of the medical professionals nor was it included anywhere in her chart of the incident. SD never lost consciousness. There was never a point where doctors were in fear for her life. But the judge sees what is put before them and signs off with the limited information they are given.
When HD filed an ex parte motion against HCBM, the hearing was scheduled for nine days later. When HCBM filed an ex parte motion against DH, the hearing was scheduled over two months later.
This was the worst time period in DH’s life. He attempted suicide. He lost an insane amount of weight. He sold beloved possessions to pay his lawyer. He did not have custody of his daughter and HCBM allowed him rare visits in public places once or twice a week.
But ah, how the tables turn.
A month before the hearing on the ex parte motion, HCBM got a DUI with SD in the car. Her driving was so ballistic, someone had called in her car. She was arrested. I could go into detail about the bullshit-ery of her and her family I read in the police report from that, but there is still so much ground to cover.
CPS notified DH of the DUI. HCBM and her lawyer told DH’s lawyer they wanted to settle custody outside of court before the ex parte hearing.
DH was exhausted. He was broke. He just wanted his daughter back. He settled with HCBM on 50/50 custody. This is perhaps the greatest regret of his life. The GAL at the meeting even told DH he didn’t have to do this, that he could fight her and probably get more custody. But DH was a shell of a person at this point. He was in debt. He was exhausted.
Mere days after they settled he checked himself into an inpatient mental health facility for treatment. He and I were in touch every once in a while throughout that entire time, but had ended our romantic relations after the ex parte was filed. I was more of a confidant and friend, but he had drifted apart from everyone in his life and I was focused on school.
The day that DH left inpatient, PF messaged him to tell him that HCBM had slipped up and drank again. Saying, “she just has such a big heart, this is so difficult for her.” DH suspects that she had gotten herself into another nearly lethal situation or gone missing and PF was hoping to do damage control by contacting him rather than him finding out another way.
So 50/50 custody it was. Nine months later, HCBM gave birth to her and PF’s son. I’m not sure of any exact dates but judging by the date of that message and the birth of the baby there is a high change HCBM was drinking while unknowingly pregnant.
For the DUI, HCBM was sentenced to 40 days in jail while pregnant with her son. It was a work release program. Since she worked for her mom, she worked as many hours as she possibly could. Her mom would pick her up from prison with her phone and her makeup so she could hide what was going on from her coworkers and the community. DH would bring SD to the gymnastics center to visit her. She had an IED put into her car when she was released, meaning she had to blow into a breathalyzer to get her car to start.
DH and I would check in every once in a while over the course of the next year. We both dated other people. HCBM of course had issues with DH’s girlfriend he was with for a few months. But things had relatively settled save for the tension and resentment between HCBM and DH.
More than a year had passed since everything transpired and since DH and I were last romantically involved. We began talking more frequently during COVID lockdown and DH admitted he was hopelessly in love with me and wanted to be together. We had a major problem though.
When HCBM and DH were settling on their custody agreement, HCBM insisted I was not to be around SD. If you recall, HD was broke, exhausted, and severely struggling with his mental health. He and I hadn’t seen each other in person in several months, we talked but very infrequently and never of rekindling our relationship in any capacity. So he gave in. As long as he could be done with the nightmare and have his daughter back.
A single sentence in a five-page custody agreement meant that I couldn’t be around SD. I want to specify, this was not a restraining order. I was never served any papers, I would not be punished in any capacity were I to see SD, there was no court record of any kind indicating that I was restricted from seeing a child or was a dangerous individual. DH wouldn’t even lose custody or face any legal ramifications were he to violate that single sentence, it would just mean an official would have to intervene to investigate and ensure the stipulation be adhered to. Still, it would’ve prevented us from having any sort of real relationship. So we filed a motion to have the line removed. I had not seen SD in well over a year and we abided by the order which was exceedingly painful.
The first hearing was before a court commissioner. We came armed with letters of recommendation from friends and family, from the families I had nannied for during college. DH’s family had finally seen the light and turned against HCBM and attended the court hearing, filing the seats.
The court commissioner spent about ten minutes reviewing our plea, and decided this was not a matter of my character or whether I was a threat to SD, but that this was a communication issue between DH and HCBM, and since DH had agreed to this, they needed to work it out between the two of them.
Ha. Like that would ever happen. DH and HCBM began communicating through a court monitored app and attending co parenting counseling while our lawyer filed a motion to bring the issue before a judge and have a GAL and Family Court Worker appointed. As we all know with family court, things move slowly and this we had to wait months to make progress on our case.
Co parenting counseling was fruitless. HCBM is not capable of accountability. She insisted DH was a narcissist because she’d read about narcissism on the internet and she believed she deserved full custody of SD.
A judge appointed a GAL and Family Court Worker to our case. I’ll never forget the relief that day as the judge told HCBM that me being in SD’s life was inevitable at this point. There was no evidence that I was a dangerous person. At one point, our lawyer brought up the language used in HCBM’s ex parte motion all that time ago, pointing out the sensational language used, specifically the term “overdose”. I was shaking when HCBM’s lawyer admitted to the judge that “there was no overdose.” I’ll never forget the sheepish look on that lawyer’s face, or how HCBM’s jaw tightened as she refused to look even a millimeter in my direction.
Everyone met with the GAL and Family Court Worker. Of course HCBM got the earliest appointment possible so she could try to sell her story. When I sat down with the GAL he said “I don’t know why you’re here, to be honest.” But that’s the ridiculous thing about family court, people can just spew this insane shit and it has to be looked into.
Both the GAL and Family Court Worker recommended the line be removed entirely. We still had to wait another month for our hearing for these recommendations to be made to the judge. Over the course of these proceedings, DH and his lawyer (with my consent) had been urging HCBM to attend a co parenting counseling session with me to address her concerns. HCBM of course vehemently refused, actually speaking to me would destroy the picture she had painted and deluded herself into believing about me.
We continued to press the issue though. After the GAL and Family Court Worker’s recommendations were passed on to everyone’s lawyers, it was clear this was not going to go in HCBM’s favor. It could’ve easily been settled outside of court, saved everyone time and money. But that was never going to happen, HCBM was going to go down swinging. Less than two weeks from our final hearing before the judge, HCBM agreed to attend co parenting counseling with me. Both parties signed NDA’s before going into these sessions, they were meant to be mediation for parents to work out their issues and not dig up fodder to toss around in court. A safe place, if you will. DH and I suspected she’d want to attend a session with me so she could fabricate some story about me being awful, or make it seem like she was being reasonable since she’d refused any and all attempts to mediate this issue civilly.
We were correct, but her feeble attempts at control were fruitless and the line was removed. I could see my girl again. Since then, DH and I got married and have been in absolute bliss as a family of three. But of course, the mess with HCBM does not stop there.
DH and I have no idea it HCBM has been drinking or not. We have no proof. She claims she got sober, but she never received any professional help or rehab so that seems doubtful to me. There are a few red flags. She now shares a car with her mother, claiming her car has “been in the shop” for well over a year now. DH explained that when she would go on drinking binges, her parents would take her car away so they could control where she went and monitor her.
We’ve also had the issue of SD not wanting to go to her mom’s house. I have ring video footage of HCBM coming to pick up SD. SD was in hysterics, she ran back in our house several times while HCBM stands annoyed in the driveway. DH sits with her and consoles her, encouraging her and telling her she will have so much fun with her mom and brother. On this particular occasion, it took 45 minutes to get SD to go with her mom. This happened numerous times. DH eventually brought this up to HCBM, expressing his concerns and saying that he wished she would participate in co-parenting their daughter in these situations rather than hiding behind her car. HCBM dismissed him, saying she was a great parent and he was obviously making SD act this way. Give SD an oscar at this point. I can’t even fathom what DH would say to make a five year old act that way.
Eventually, HCBM stopped picking SD up and instead sent her mom to get her. SD has no issue going with her grandmother. A bit suspicious to me that it was specifically her mom that caused such an upset for her.
HCBM is very obsessed with image. She dresses SD in expensive outfits with intricate hairstyles. I should add, expensive outfits that are purchased for her by HCBM’s mother. She has told DH that she is not pleased with how he sends SD to school and has concerns about his ability to parent. He sends her… a 5 year old… to school in leggings and t-shirts like the rest of the 5 year olds in her class. Don’t get me wrong, I love to dress SD up when she’ll let me and I have indulged in Rylee and Cru outfits and what not, but the majority of the time SD wears normal kid clothes. She runs and jumps and plays and likes pink and sparkles and tops with her favorite characters on them. We let her pick her crazy mismatched outfits and throw her hair up in a quick bun or braid so it is out of her face. She bathes almost excessively because she loves the bath and is a very well looked after child.
Now, HCBM lost a significant amount of weight after she got together with PF. Her mother is also extremely thin. DH has told me about how they were always doing fad diets, they’d call themselves fat and critique their appearances constantly and clearly did not have a healthy relationship to their bodies or food.
At our home, SD is fed a balanced diet but I try to encourage a positive relationship to her body and food. No food is “good” or “bad,” they simply serve different purposes. For example, carbs give us energy, protein helps us grow, sugar makes us happy, etc. Creating guilt around eating certain types of food can lead to eating disorders, body image issues, I know because I had a poor relationship to food and my body for so long. SD loves fruits and veggies. She also loves chips and candy. She is allowed to indulge in sugar within reason and without guilt. I don’t think it's rocket science, and for us it has had fantastic results. We'll be at a gas station and ask SD if she wants a snack and the kid will want celery. I follow the instagram page “kids eat in color” very closely and when we prepare SD’s meals, the “treat” component is served together with the rest and not withheld until later. This is so SD doesn’t view certain foods as special or more desirable than others, and won’t associate treat foods with this rush of excitement and overwhelming positivity moreso than say chicken nuggets or carrots. When DH sets down her plate to eat, SD rarely if ever reaches for her treat food first. She eats everything on her plate until her body tells her she’s full.
HCBM constantly berates DH about SD eating “healthy.” She criticizes him for getting candy at the movies. Goes off about her having a cup of sugar-free pudding at 11 a.m. On Halloween, SD is allowed two pieces of candy from her trick or treat pile at her mom’s house.
Last Halloween at our house, we dumped all of our candy out in a huge pile and watched a movie. SD ate, I kid you not, four pieces of candy. She didn’t feel the need to binge on all this candy because she knew it wouldn’t be withheld if she asked for more in our home. There is still halloween candy in a bucket in our pantry and we weren’t even out trick or treating for an hour.
HCBM accuses us of “competing” with her. This. Is. Rich. SD loves visiting my parent’s and sometime last fall took a liking to playing my dad’s drumset. Later that week, HCBM bought her a kid-sized drumset. We adopted a kitten, HCBM adopted a kitten. We started playing barbies as a family, HCBM buys a barbie dreamhouse. We planned a weekend trip to a big city a few hours away, HCBM and PF take SD and their son to that city the week before we’re supposed to go. My husband is a Dungeons and Dragons fanatic, and recently he has been making kid friendly campaigns for the three of us to play as a family. SD loves playing dungeons and dragons with her daddy. It has become our family’s thing. The dungeons and dragons movie came out recently and DH and I got tickets for an early screening on a day we didn’t have SD. Who do you think we saw there while we were waiting in line to get popcorn? Their family does not play dungeons and dragons. You’ll be pleased to know that SD came down to sit with us for the last half hour of the movie, PF who had taken her had to give in because they were seated a row behind us and she kept leaning forward to excitedly whisper to DH about the movie.
I have suffered extreme emotional issues due to the abuse from HCBM. I’ve attended therapy specifically to address it. I developed severe social anxiety because HCBM will tell anyone who listens these fictions about me and DH. We live in a small community, one that HCBM and her family have been a part of for a long time and I am constantly afraid people I meet will know them and have these crazy ideas about who I am as a person. The flipside of this is that their family’s reputation is not as positive as they like to think it is, particularly to police in the area. In addition to HCBM’s drunk escapades involving police, her father has a court record pages long for tax fraud.
Thankfully, I work in the city 30 minutes from where we live and that has allowed me to build my own village and have a life untainted by HCBM and her crap. Through lots of work I have been able to establish firm boundaries. I’ve had to restrict HCBM and her friends from my social media accounts after being watched obsessively. HCBM’s mother even went as far as messaging my mother on Facebook to try and say DH is a narcissist and she should be concerned for me. DH and my mom are very close, and my mom was mainly worried about how far these people were going to go to untether my life.
HCBM doesn’t seem to understand the concept of equal guardianship. She views herself as the primary parent and believes she should have access to everything in our lives. This is legally not the case so luckily we’re just able to ignore those demands but it gets taxing.
HCBM’s parents pay for SD’s health insurance so HCBM makes all of her doctor and dentist appointments and acts as though that’s because DH is an uninvolved parent, despite the fact that he has asked to make appointments on his custody days so he could go. I have excellent benefits at my job and could take SD on as a dependent since she resides with us 50% of the time. We haven’t even proposed this idea to HCBM because god knows she would never agree despite the fact that this would probably save her parents a ton of money.
HCBM has SD involved in several activities on her custody days. A bit too many for a five year old in my opinion. Multiple gymnastics and dance classes and soccer. Since HCBM’s parents are always funneling her money and paying her bills they are constantly going out to do expensive activities, weekend trips, shows, you name it. HCBM thinks these things make her a good parent, but I personally don’t think that SD feels as emotionally attached to HCBM as she does DH. DH and I spend a ton of one on one time with SD. We play with her with her toys, we do crafts, we watch movies together. HCBM thinks dropping her off at some expensive activity makes her this stellar mom, but she doesn’t engage in the same level of connection with SD that DH does. HCBM’s parents of course bought them a trip to Disney World last year, and the day they came to pick up SD to leave for the airport she did not want to go. She began crying and insisting she wanted her dad to take her, and that she would miss him too much. What five year old objects to effing Disney World??
We have issues on the horizon with SD attending kindergarten next year. I know a battle will ensue about where she attends. The custody schedule does not give us any weekend time because when it was written, SD was one and DH was working weekends and the days they agreed on coincided with his schedule. This means that when SD attends school in the fall five days a week, we will not get a full day together as a family. DH and I are very nervous about addressing this. We don’t have any desire to change the 50/50 custody, just to adjust the days so that we can have some weekend time with SD. It is likely this issue will end up in court and cost us thousands.
I have had to come to the hard acceptance that this is just how our relationship with HCBM will be, likely forever. I hold on to selfish hope that she may screw up drinking again, but at the end of the day I want what is best for SD which is a healthy and stable mother and I will do whatever I can to encourage a positive relationship for them. At this point we have no proof of her drinking for the past few years. Either she miraculously stopped or her family’s response is just so calculated to protect her from getting into any shit and jeopardizing her custody. If that is the case, that can only go on for so long before SD is old enough to tell us what is happening.
I think that HCBM is deeply insecure and ashamed. I think she needs to make DH and I the villains so she feels better about herself. I think her upbringing has allowed her to shirk any and all accountability, she is surrounded by people who tell her she’s never wrong and she’s this great person and great parent.
I don’t know what the resolution is here. If you have read this far, thank you sincerely. Though I confide in my mom and friends about the situation with HCBM, I keep my venting to a minimum so as not to let her live rent free in my life. I am not going to spend all this energy being pissed at her and her immaturity. I’m not going to give her the satisfaction of getting on my nerves, being the subject of my conversations. I’m not even going to let her think I care enough to trash her to people. But it feels extremely therapeutic to get this all out to a group of people who understand.

Lothli woke up bright and early this Saturday, as always. Then, with a yawn, she checked her phone: April 1st.
Was there something important happening today? I don’t quite remember…
Her thoughts were quickly swept away by the mundanity of her morning routine. Pulling on clothes, brushing her teeth, doing her hair…
And so, she was entirely caught off guard when she arrived in the kitchen.
Her twin sister cackled like a madwoman, stirring a gigantic cauldron smelling burnt iron, cotton candy, and writer’s tears.
“Maishul, what exactly have you done?” Lothli sighed, ambling over to the bubbling cauldron.
“This? Oh, just a little April Fool’s prank!” the other twin giggled before pulling out a miniature figurine of a strange humanoid insect. With a snap of her fingers, the statuette grew to full size, glancing around warily.
“Oh goodness! What’s going on here?” the moth woman exclaimed, seeming more confused than frightened. “What kind of insect are you? I’ve never seen anyone with just four limbs like you two!”
Lothli turned to Maishul, a frown on her face. “Is this Minerva? Did you STEAL her? We’re going to get banned, you know.”
The other twin continued cackling, heedless of Lothli’s wrath. “No, no, I got permission! Look!”
Indeed, the paper Maishul pulled out did have the signatures of one, two… how many authors?!
“Maishul, what the heck have you done?” Lothli huffed. “This is— how do we—”
“Excuse me, but I believe I may be lost?” Minerva asked, her wings fluttering nervously. “While I would love to ask the two of you some questions, I need to return to my lab, if you could point me in the right direction?”
“Oh, I apologize, Dr. Minerva. You’re currently experiencing a dream. Please do forget about this,” Lothli sighed before snapping her fingers and reverting the insectoid woman to her figurine form.
“How exactly are we going to explain this to Polaris?” Lothli deadpanned with her gaze on her happy-go-lucky sibling.
“Oh, I have a good ‘ol industrial barrel of Remove-Yo-Memory. I’m sure it’ll turn out fine!” Maishul grinned back. “Look, look! Let me show you what wonderful scenes I’ve cooked up for everyone!”
Scene One: Art’s Very Bad, No Good Day
I was not having a good day. First, I was thrown into yet another random plane of existence. Dimension hopping was something I wanted to experience no more than one time in my life; thank you very much. And yet, here I was. In yet another random plane of existence with absolutely no say.
“Iklem.”
Second all, I found myself surrounded by these strange creatures. Four legs, shimmering black pelt, bizarre snake-like neck, flat head, creepy singular eye, and that weirdly human voice. Definitely not a fan.
“Iklem.”
The three Iklems crept—
Ahem. The plural of Iklem is Iklemli, Art.
And thirdly, that obnoxious voice ringing out in my head. Who was that? Why were they in my head? And why could they read my thoughts?
Fine. The three Iklemli crept closer and closer, predatory intent clear. I backed away slowly before my phone suddenly burst out with the cheery tune of Weird Al singing, “Just eat it (eat it), eat it (eat it)...”
“I’m in the mother of all situations here, Demoness, and you choose a freaking parody song? Can you at least tell me what the hell is happening here?” I snarled into my phone’s mic, watching the approaching monsters closely.
“M’dear, I hate to say it, but I have no clue what’s happening.” The slight strain in the Demoness’s usually sultry voice gave me pause. That Demoness? Confused? I really was in some deep shit, wasn’t I?
“Could you at least tell me what an Iklem is?” I said, imitating those creatures as best I could.
“My love, how do I explain this? As best as I could tell, at least five foreign dimensions have been forced together into one singular mess. And whoever did it had no grace or finesse at all.”
Tell the Demoness that she has no grace or finesse, either! Hmph!
Rolling my eyes, I communicated the feelings of my new head neighbor to the Demoness.
“Well, dear, tell your new friend that they should consider undoing this fiasco,” the Demoness replied with a sigh. “Whatever the case is, those Iklemli you mentioned are from one of those other dimensions. I can’t tell you a thing about them.”
With that good news, I turned back to the advancing beasts. This was going to be a fun one…
“Maishul, you can’t just break the fourth wall and shove your thoughts into the scene,” Lothli huffed, shaking her head.
“Pfffft!” Maishul blew a raspberry before turning back to her abomination of a cauldron.
“Also, you can’t just swap to first-person narration. We’re in third-person narration.”
“Well, Matt writes in first-person. And I respect our fellow author’s intent; thank you very much!”
Lothli raised an eyebrow in response before pointing to the bubbling cauldron of doom. “You call THAT respecting our fellow authors’ intents?”
“They gave permission!” Maishul pouted before turning back to her inglorious creation. “And you won’t complain once you see my next glorious scene!”
Scene Two: Sloth Squared
Pride’s scowl only grew deeper as he dragged his erstwhile companion along. The swampland around them had warped into a blooming forest, with trees looming large overhead. The various fully intact buildings were most concerning, indicating that the pair had passed into a rift.
“Sloth, GET UP!” he hissed, shaking the lazy layabout.
“Huh? Wuzzit? I’m sleepin…” Sloth snored, already back asleep.
“We’ve got a MAJOR problem here. Pretty sure a rift opened around us, so stay on guard!”
Sloth blearily stumbled to his feet before glancing wide-eyed at his surroundings.
“Holy cow, you’re right! I didn’t even notice. But, man, Pride, I’m so tired… I…” Sloth stumbled a bit further before faceplanting directly into a bed of flowers.
“Dammit, Sloth. This is ridiculous, even for your standards.” Pride leaned down to pick Sloth back up, but something strange was afoot. As soon as he leaned down, an overwhelming surge of exhaustion passed through him as well, and he collapsed on top of his companion.
“Dude, you’re sleeping right on top of a good patch. Can you two move?” A voice lazily drifted into Pride’s mind before he rocketed up ramrod straight.
“Hwa— what!? Oh. A rifter.” Pride composed himself as he stared down at the man who awoke him. About five foot six, with short white hair and red eyes.
“Uh, I’m not a rifter or whatever you just called me. I’m Clear, prince of Sloth. And you?” Clear tilted his head.
“Prince… of me? Ehehe, there’s no prince of me…” Sloth murmured in his sleep.
“Typical rifter, spewing nonsense. Come on, you lazy bum. We’re gonna hide before this gets violent.” Pride turned to drag Sloth away but found his legs unwilling to move.
“Hey, man. C’mon now. You haven’t noticed you’re in a dream yet?” Clear said, his hand extended. “Let’s just talk, alright?”
Pride struggled for a few more moments, then back at Clear. “Alright, alright, never seen a rifter do that before. Calm down, yeah? I’ll chat until this rift collapses.”
“So please, introduce yourself properly this time,” Clear responded, freeing Pride with a flick of his hand.
“Right. I’m Pride, that’s Sloth.” Pride pointed at himself, then at his companion. “Can we go?” “No. Please explain what you are doing here and those wings on your back.” Clear yawned. “Also, don’t use our nation’s name as a moniker. It’s probably disrespectful… or something. Eh, we don’t actually care that much.”
“Huh? We’re here because your stupid rift pulled us in,” Pride hissed. “And these wings? We were born with ’em. No story here. Also, pretty sure we were the ones who had those names first.”
“Eh, the kingdom of Pride wouldn’t be very happy to hear about that,” Clear responded. “But whatever, man. Things have been rather chill ever since a random blob named Sparky fell on top of the Demon King and ate him or whatever. So enjoy the nap, I guess. Mind if I join in?”
Pride rolled his eyes before scooting over to allow Clear access to the flowers. Before long, Sloth and Clear were snuggled up together, much to the chagrin of Pride.
“What the hell am I supposed to do now?”
“Aren’t they just the cutest?!” Maishul exclaimed. “We should make that our newest OTP. I bet Haru would approve.”
“Please don’t ship characters across two different SerSuns,” Lothli replied with a shake of her head. “Also what was that about Sparky eating the Demon King—”
“OKAYNEXTSCENE!!”
Scene Three: Machines, Demons, and The World Tree
There was a rather strange rash of oddly dressed folk in Lugavya lately. Or rather, just odd folk in general.
Rumors flew of a human with bird wings who passed over the town, carried through hurried whispers between the residents. A strange man with fierce red eyes insisting on making ‘deals,’ much to the annoyance of passersby trying to get through their day.
Lena and Veska had met to investigate, unable to keep themselves still while such strange events abounded. No sooner had the two exchanged greetings did two strange men approach, flagrantly discarding any sensibilities on their right to free speech.
“Hello!” the younger one called out before getting his head gently bonked by the older.
“W-what was it? Oh! The greeting we use should have been ‘well met,’ right?” the teenage boy puzzled himself, rubbing his head.
“No. Firstly, as foreign visitors, we do not use that greeting. Secondly, we do not greet them. They greet us,” the older whispered, turning his eyes to Lena and Veska. It seemed at least one of them remembered their manners.
“Peace, strangers. We will not begrudge you for your transgressions. Tell me, what business have you with us?” Lena began.
“We are looking for directions. We have lost our way. Please, would you tell us our current location? Latitude and longitude are preferred, but any notable landmarks will do.” The older man bowed slightly, with the younger following shortly after.
Latitude? Longitude? These words were unfamiliar to Lena and Veska.
“This is Lugavya. Home to Alvedos, the World Tree?” Veska explained, an eyebrow raised. Were these folks raised under a rock or something?
The two men conversed among themselves, their frowns deepening.
“Apologies, but I am unaware of Lugavya. Could you perhaps point us in the direction of the United States?” the older asked, tilting his head slightly.
“Oh, and if you know of any demons, could you put in a word for me? I can’t figure out the ritual to get home without one of them…” the younger added.
The United States? Demons? More unfamiliar terms. Lena and Veska knew these newcomers were oddballs, but this was a bit much.
“I’m sorry—really! But we simply don’t have the knowledge to help the two of you. Perhaps you could head to the Foresters? I’ll give you their location.” Lena rattled off directions to the nearby Foresters’ hall.
“Thank you very much.” The older man stalked off after a stiff bow, and the younger man quickly followed.
“Sticks and stones, what is the world coming to?”
“Was that Megan’s SerSun? All that intricately balanced worldbuilding, and you just shoved random crap in.” Lothli barely held back a sigh. “Also, you didn’t even introduce those two characters. How are our readers supposed to know who they are?”
“This is left as an exercise to the reader,” Maishul tittered into the camera before returning to the glorious mess in her cauldron.
“Next scene!”
Scene Four: The One With No Chill
There wasn’t much that could faze a Huntress.
It was often said that their wills were unshakable. Nothing could cause them to stop them from single-mindedly accomplishing their goal. And yet, Olivia stood dead in her tracks, staring at the abomination across the Dam square.
“I AM OLIVIA. DARK HUNTRESS. SMASHER OF SQUEAKERS. AND THE ONE WITH NO CHILL,” the awful creature that vaguely resembled Olivia boomed.
“That young lass a friend of yours?” Barlow remarked, barely holding back a chuckle.
“Nope.” Olivia chucked one of her daggers at the offending sight, but she deflected the blade with a ripple of its musculature.
“You are weak. You have no strength. Witness me, false Olivia.” The muscle monster took up a ridiculous pose, her muscles overtly flexing.
“I will destroy you. And after that, I will destroy your creator. And I’ll salt your entire bloodline, while I’m at it,” Olivia snarled.
“I would like to see you try, false Olivia. Last time, I was overcome by the power of the Deus Ex Machina. But this time, I will not be struck down.” The monster took a step forward, the cobblestones cracking under her feet.
Olivia flinched. A Huntress does not feel fear. A Huntress does not back down. Yet… in the face of this horrible being… Her mind recalled the near-death experience she had with the Beast. Did she really want to face that again?
She shook her head, clearing it. No. She would finish this. Olivia raced at the mocking facsimile of herself, her onyx daggers at the ready. As she drew closer, she summoned every ounce of strength and struck.
As Olivia flew through the air, the world seemed to slow down.
Ah… this feels… familiar…
“‘Admittedly, Huntress, you are quite the entertainer—”
“No!” Lothli slapped the figurines out of Maishul’s hands, sinking them into the dreadful mire of the cauldron below. “You can’t reuse that line for the third time!”
“But you used it, Lothli. That’s hypocritical!” Maishul harrumphed.
“Yes, because it was the first time we used it. You can’t just reuse jokes like that!” Lothli glared. “And don’t think I forgot about that comment Clear made about Sparky. What. Exactly. Did you do?”
“Uhm, uhh…” Maishul stuttered. “W-Well, I maybe kinda spilled some my Story-Breaking-Plot-Devices into the cauldron on accident…”
“Your WHATS?!” Lothli stared at her twin in disbelief.
“Uhh, it wasn’t a big deal or anything. Just, uh... Scarlet, the Demon King, Sparky, Wan, Pre-Geas Dread Lord Ardus, the plague from , the Deus Ex Machina, the Beast, and the entirety of the United States’ arsenal of nuclear weaponry.”
Lothli shook her head with a sigh. “I’m pretty sure you caused mass human extinction at least three times over.”
“Well! No time to worry about it! Next scene!”
Scene Five: Bea and Ophelia Discover The Wonders of Nuclear Physics
Bea and Ophelia stared at the booklet that had just materialized before them. “Maishul’s Simple Guide to Stealing and Utilizing the Entirety of the United States’ Arsenal of Nuclear Weaponry: For Dummies!” The booklet was decorated with garish stickers of rainbows and glitter, along with cartoonish mushroom clouds.
With a glance at Ophelia, Bea picked up the book. Immediately, her mind was flooded with images and knowledge. Where exactly every nuclear silo in the United States was located. The launch codes and how to bypass the two-key rule. The birth and loving families of each and every nuclear warhead…?
“Bea? Dear? Are you alright?” Ophelia shook Bea gently, concerned. Bea wordlessly handed over the booklet and watched the same information flow through her. The two shared a meaningful glance before turning the manual over. A bright red button sat there, glowing ominously amongst the childish stickers and drawings of shocked faces.
“This is absolutely too dangerous to be left just lying around,” Bea murmured, staring at the booklet intently. Maybe it was a prank some lesser fae put together to induce some concerning but ultimately harmless illusions. But deep down, the two knew this was far more sinister than a simple prank. Plus, there was no fae named “Maishul” that either of them knew of.
“I’m going to have to seal this thing away with the strongest magic I have,” Ophelia declared. With a wave of her hand, ethereal chains weaved around the book. Magical seals whirled through the air, all concentrated on the offending manual. The horrors of nuclear annihilation have been contained with a final clap of her hands.
For around five seconds. Immediately after the ritual was complete, as if to spite Ophelia’s work, a glowing sword descended from the heavens, slicing through the glowing chains and seals like butter. The two barely managed to glimpse the name written on the side: “The Deus Ex Machina,” before the blade landed squarely on the big red button with a satisfying click!
“Shit.”
“So what exactly were you saying about ‘not worrying about it’?” Lothli shook her head in dismay. “How are we going to explain this mess to their poor, poor writers? What are we going to say to Bay?”
“It’ll be fine! I’m not breaking any of the rules on shortstories, which means I totally can’t be banned!” Maishul quipped cheerily.
“That is 100% not how it works.” Lothli crossed her arms. “Don’t drag me down with you.”
“I dunno! You’ll bail me out, right?” Maishul shrugged before returning to her appalling project. “Next scene!”
Scene Six: Sanguia Loses a Fight
These were the end times. The world felt… sideways. The government was in shambles. A plague that turned people into fine, yellow dust had apparently appeared, sweeping the continent from east to west. Yet, there was nothing I could do. Right in front of me, I had my own foes to contend with on the roof of Holos Lucidium.
On my right was a shapeless mass, writhing and transforming, throwing vicious barbs my way. It never introduced itself, but I knew its name from within myself: the Beast.
On my left was a much more innocent figure, at least on the surface. He had slicked-back black hair, brown eyes simmering with self-assured pride, and an easy smirk. And to cap it off, he introduced himself promptly and with great gusto; he was Dread Lord Ardus.
I could attempt to flee, but what purpose would that serve? Even if I got away, which my gut told me was highly unlikely, I would be abandoning my guild to die to these two monsters. So no. I stood my ground here.
“Sanguia. Member of Holos Lucidium.” I balanced my stance between my two flanks, watching both. With a smirk from Ardus and a ripple from the Beast, the fight began.
I quickly discarded the idea of even fighting the rippling mass on my right. It had no blood I could control, and impacting it with my blade would make me stuck. But the Dread Lord was no slouch, either.
As I rushed at Ardus, a tingle in my spine screamed at me to duck. I tucked into a combat roll as a great blast of flame roared right where I used to be.
“Fiesty, aren’t you? Well, that’s what makes it fun,” the Dread Lord growled, licking his lips.
I had no time to respond as a raging, shimmering bull attempted to ram its gleaming horns directly through me. I sprung off the ground, landing just behind the writhing bull. There was no time to go on the offensive; it took all I could to stay alive.
“Stop struggling, Interloper,” the Beast snarled. “I have plans I have to attend to. Plans that do not involve you.”
I kept the undulating mass between myself and my second opponent. My only hope was to promote crossfire. The dagger I held in my right hand felt woefully inadequate for this task.
“You heard the fella. I’ll end this, here and now.” Ardus thrust his hand straight up into the air as if grasping something far above him.
“Dread Lord. May I take this as a sign of betrayal?” The Beast rumbled, a dangerous edge to its voice.
“Nah, I never said I was working with you. You’re too… icky for my tastes.” The Dread Lord tapped his chin thoughtfully. “It’s a good thing you’ll be obliterated in an instant. Ta ta!”
I looked up with a heavy heart, knowing how outclassed I was. There was barely time to say goodbye before a massive ball of light enveloped me in its all-consuming shine. The last thing I managed to think was:
That was an utterly unfair fight.
“Well, the protagonist of our SerSun just died. What now?” Lothli looked at the cauldron in dismay.
“Hey, it’s not so bad! Scarlet is still alive, right?” Maishul dug around in the cauldron before pulling out yet another distended scene. “Look! Here she is!”
“What… is that?” Lothli looked at the scene with equal parts awe and disgust.
“Oh! Well, I really liked Fye’s SerSun, so I made my own! Isn’t it great?”
“Maishul, I think you missed the entire point of his SerSun. Where’s the inter-character drama? Where’s the mystery? Where’s the actual HISTORY?” Lothli poked the off-kilter scene with distaste. “This version of the story is just <Murder.>.”
“Well too bad, dear ‘ol sis! Here! We! Go!”
Scene Seven: Murder Without the History
Hi, I’m Benedict Lushon, Ben for short. Somehow, I think I just unlocked the secret to teleportation. I stand in the middle of the mansion’s dining room, feeling my stomach turn violently. One moment, I was chained in front of a cackling Kyle, and the next thing I know, we’re back in this blasted room. I crane my head, checking who else is here.
Teddy, check. His monocle and top hat are still crooked as he looks around the room, just as confused as I.
Cornell, check. Unfortunately, he still seems to be out cold.
Kyle, check. Wait—
I stride up to Kyle and grab onto his lapels. “What exactly have you done?” I say, shaking him back and forth.
Unfortunately, he seems even more confused by the current events than I am, judging by the bulging eyes and frothing at the mouth.
“W-What exactly happened here!? We were just— and then—” my former coworker manages to sputter out before a booming feminine voice rings out from the walls.
“Heya! What’s up, characters! It’s me, ya girl Maishul, back at it again with another fun murdery twist!” The cheery voice that booms out from the walls contrasts with all the horrors we’ve seen thus far. Also, who talks like this? Did we get kidnapped by one of those Instagram influencers? Ugh, I hate those kinds of people.
“Who are you?! What have you done?!” Kyle screams, his voice cracking. “I have waited YEARS to take my revenge on these fools, and you—”
“Oh. You.” The voice seems displeased at the interruption. “Sorry, I didn’t think your Tuffy plotline was interesting, so I retconned it!”
Now, that was the mark of a bad writer. As a future multi-bestselling author, I know that one of the most sinful things a writer can do is randomly retcon the story. I’m confident this random influencer girl will never go anywhere in her writing career.
“YOU! We were known as the Tufforo family, and we—” Kyle rages before being cut off by the voice again.
“Sorry, don’t care.” A piece of duct tape manifests itself directly onto Kyle’s mouth. I would find it funny if it didn’t demonstrate how supernatural this influencer’s power seems.
“Anyways! Here’s the rules. I’m not really good at that being cryptic thing, so it’ll be easy!” the voice announces with glee. “Here’s my super special sparkly OC, do not steal, known as Scarlet, Scourge of the Americas. She’ll try and chase you down! She wins when you’re all dead. You all win when, I don’t know, she dies of old age or something. You can try to kill her; it won’t work!”
‘Super special sparkly OC, do not steal?’ So, what, did I find myself in some hellish parody of Earth? That must be it. This must all be a very terrible dream. I sincerely hope that none of my readers would ever consider making fanfiction like this of my stories.
“By jove, those rules seem downright unfair!” Teddy finally seems to have found his voice. “Please, good madam, could you let us go? We have already suffered at the hands of that accursed man—”
“Lalala, can’t hear you!” the girl’s voice sang out. “Here she comes! Give it up for… Scarlet!”
A hidden panel drops a… rather regular-looking young woman onto the floor. Why, if I were in charge, I would have ensured that my villain would have a spectacular appearance. Someone as fascinating and spellbinding as Jack the Ripper—
Scarlet dashes at Kyle and [REDACTED]
… … Technical Difficulties
“MAISHUL! What the hell was that?! Is that how you talk when I’m not around? And what the hell was that last section?” Lothli furiously slapped the tortured scene back into the accursed project bubbling menacingly below.
“Well, Scarlet’s kinda messy, so I tried to cover it up,” Maishul pouted. “Also, I was just trying to liven up the scene a bit! Kyle’s so BORING. He speaks in RIDDLES and they make my brain HURT.”
“That’s because you don’t have a single brain cell in that head of yours,” Lothli huffed. “Don’t make such sweeping changes to people’s stories!”
“Well… dear sis, could I trouble you for a favor, since I’m so head empty ‘n all?” Maishul smiled her widest, most brilliant smile.
“What.” The other twin glared back, unimpressed.
“Well, if you don’t want the two of us to get banned, can you help me separate these stories back out? Please?” With a fluttering of her eyelashes and a winsome wink, this would undoubtedly win her sister to her side—
“Deal with it yourself. I’m going to hand out apologies.” Lothli had no sympathy for her twin’s plight.
“Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!” Maishul cried. For now, she was burdened with her least favorite task; actual work.
And thus, this tale comes to a close. Nevertheless, its name will ring true throughout the land as the legendary fable known only as “In the Shadow of Machines, Scarlet, and the In Between Geas and the Beginning of the Demon Murder History: Dissonance, also How Did We Get Here?”
Thank you very much for your time. And apologies for my sister.
Lothli, signing off.
Credits: Maishul, Lothli, FTF!Olivia, and the Deus Ex Machina, from u/Lothli’s FTF Serial, Minerva and the plague, from u/PolarisStorm’s Art, Demoness Virtua, Sparky, and Dread Lord Ardus from u/mattswritingaccount’s Iklemli, Lena, and Veska from u/MeganBessel’s Pride and Sloth from u/Helicopterdrifter’s Clear and Alex from u/Carrieka23’s Talix, Sanguia, and Scarlet from u/Lothli’s Olivia, Barlow, and the Beast from u/Not_theScrumPolice’s Wan, Bea, and Ophelia from u/ZachtheLitchKing’s Ben, Theodore, Cornell, and Kyle from u/FyeNite’s The Entirety of the United States Arsenal of Nuclear Weaponry from the United States.
Special thanks to u/OldBayJ, which this fantastic feature would be impossible without.

Just wanted to tell someone the little memories of my grandma and her final weeks.

• she always used to cut recipes out of magazines and mail them to me
• she’d send me cards at college for random little holidays, and she’d usually put in some money for a treat
• she loved going to the movies and even had a membership so she could go every week. One time, we had the theater to ourselves, and when we got up to leave, she jokingly said, “bye everyone!” I’ll never forget it for some reason
• she was such a good baker and gave me my love for baking
• she loved the fried chicken from this random restaurant in my hometown, and we’d order it every time she visited. -she loved to take me shopping and would always hang up all the clothes in the dressing room while I tried more on lol
• one time we were at the mall and she put on a temporary fake tattoo with me on our lower backs - we laughed so hard
• I’ll always remember her driving me in my grandpa’s truck whenever we went anywhere and her joking about how much she hated it
• she had the best long nails for back scratching -she loved an over easy egg for breakfast

God, I can still vividly picture the sight of her shoes and purse sitting in the entryway of my parents house.
I remember painting her toenails as a kid, and how she drove me home from swimming lessons in her white station wagon in the pouring rain one time - so random
I remember going to her doctors appointment with her after they found the tumors and how scared she was.
I remember decorating her house for Christmas for her because she was too weak to. It was her last Christmas.
I remember looking at her handwriting on the calendar and seeing “Our savior’s birthday. Horray!” Written on December 25th’s spot in her curly handwriting.
I remember how she randomly wanted to eat at long john silvers after her doctors appointment.
I remember how poor the medical care was where she lived, and how appalled one nurse was at how poorly the home health nurse had cared for her brain surgery incision
I remember the way she always listened, took my side no matter what, and said she’d pray for me when I was facing something hard.
I remember that last hug in her dimly lit dining room at 4 am before I left for the airport and knowing that would be the last time I saw her.
I remember her calling me from the hospital and telling me how mean one of the nurses was. That was the last time I heard her voice.
She was my best friend and was gone so quickly.
It’s been 4 years, but damn, it still hurts so much. 😭

"Kyagh ki ka ka kiyah... Gyah ga kiyaga ki ki gi korh ge ge ge ki ga gyah kah. Gyah kita ki! Gyah ki taki fa ki geeh!" ("So, Arthur seeks to challenge the ruler of this realm... He will find that the Castle of Astaroth has a new lord as well as many powerful minions to fight on his command. My demon brethren! Destroy this human, and tonight, we dine on his bones!")
Among the armies of the Ghoul Realm, the Red Arremers are some of the most fearsome, but none more so than the one known as the Red Blaze, Firebrand. A descendant of the original Red Blaze (also called Firebrand), both he and his ancestor heeded the call when the King of Destruction swept his influence across the realm, fighting back against the darkness and chaos it wrought, both ultimately succeeding. After this, Firebrand sought further glory, searching across the land for the six Crests, each of which held great power and had the potential to grant anyone who gathered all six the ability to conquer the realm. He succeeded twice, being attacked while still greatly injured from succeeding the first time and needing to regather the Crests before his newfound enemy used them to gain Infinity, but soon after disposed of them. Realizing his true power came from himself, Firebrand set off once more, hoping to face even more worthy warriors to enter the glory of battle with.
As Firebrand is a name rather than a title of any kind, the majority of this RT will be taken up by what is assumed to be a the single main Firebrand, covering Gargoyle's Quest, Demon's Crest, and the two Marvel vs Capcom appearances which use the name. After will cover the noted unique Firebrand from Gargoyle's Quest 2, and following that general feats for Red Arremers where they do not receive a unique name.

Legend

Ghosts 'n Goblins

G - Ghosts 'n Goblins S - Super Ghouls 'n Ghosts U - Ultimate Ghosts 'n Goblins WS - Makaimura for Wonderswan

Gargoyle's Quest

GQ - Gargoyle's Quest GQII - Gargoyle's Quest 2 DC - Demon's Crest

Crossovers

SNK - SNK vs. Capcom: SVC Chaos NxC - Namco x Capcom MvC - Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 MvC:I - Marvel vs. Capcom Infinite WU - Worlds Unite
The tags from the crossover games will be bolded to help distinguish them, given they are not canon to any part of the original Ghosts 'n Goblins universe. This is not the case for the Worlds Unite comic arc, which will not be bolded.

Strength

• Punches a thick metal door off of its hinges, beveling it and sending it flying^DC
• Can hit enemies into the air, be them people, mechs, or otherwise^MvC
• Destroys large blocks of ice with a headbutt^DC
• Shatters gargoyle statues^DC
• Destroys the upper half and large scythe of large gargoyle statues^DC
• Completely destroys the rock blocking a door with a headbutt^DC
• Drives an enemy through the ground, tearing it up, be the floor of the stage stone or the metal of a helicarrier^MvC
• Dive bombs an enemy into the ground, creating a fiery crater^MvC:I
• Can cling onto sheer surfaces, such as stone walls, with his nails being made stronger when granted the Power of the King^GQ

Durability

• Shields himself from attacks with his wings^MvC:I
• Can take a large amount of varying hits^NxC
• Struck by an energy blast from Sigma-3^WU
• Flies about after being critically wounded in a battle for the Heaven Crest, before being attacked with a bolt of magic from behind and falling to the ground from a great height. It's unclear how much time there is between this and the start of the game, but it's unlikely to be much, and he at least survived without much medical attention^DC

Speed

• Glides about at great speed^DC
• Quickly rises into the air and flies about the Demon Realm on the overworld map^DC

Pyrokinesis

• Appears to destroy a Sigma drone with a fireball^WU
• Destroys monsters in a burst of fire, though this could just be a generic defeating effect or the nature of the monsters themselves^GQ
• Completely destroys a small tree in a single fireball^GQ
• Spits a wide, short range burst of fire^MvC
• Breathes fire onto the ground, having it travel forward a short distance^MvC
• Exhales a massive amount of purple flame^MvC
• Drags an enemy along the ground, creating fire underneath them, letting them go in a burst of flame that leaves them briefly on fire^MvC:I
• Dashes forwards in the air, covered in flame^MvC
• Covers himself and an enemy he's grabbed in fire while power bombing to the ground, creating a large burst of fire on impact^MvC:I

Crests

Six Crests with dominion over different elements and aspects of reality which fell from the heavens into the Demon Realm, sparking years of conflict as many tried to get their hands on it. At the start of Demon's Crest, Firebrand was attacked just after gaining all of them, spending the rest of the game reclaiming them, using each Crests to alter his abilities. He is capable of instantly swapping between their abilities on the fly, but can only be influenced by one at a time. At the end of the game, Firebrand realised his true power came from himself, and disposed of the Crests seemingly outside of the Demon Realm^DC

Fire

Allowing the user to control fire,^DC unlike the other Crests, the Fire Crest was split into 5 pieces after Firebrand was attacked. He retained one fragment throughout the game

• Fire - A basic ball of fire that can light candles^DC
• Buster - A more powerful bolt of fire which shatters stone and brick blocks^DC
  • Breaks the armour off of enemies^DC
• Claw - Lets Firebrand 'climb up walls' by covering spiked walls with a substance he can cling onto without injury^DC
• Tornado - Lets Firebrand jump higher than before by creating whirlwind platforms in the air^DC
  • Can be used offensively, and make a tall burst of fire after a fireball's been spat into it^MvC:I
• Demon Fire - Allows the bearer to spit bolts of 'the most powerful fire in the realm'^DC

Earth

Turns Firebrand into Ground Gargoyle, granting him great speed and strength at the cost of no longer being able to fly^DC

• Bashes aside a large stone object^DC
• Shatters a large statue^DC
• Shatters a stone structure larger than Firebrand^DC
• Spits waves of energy which travel along the ground^DC

Air

Turns Firebrand into Aerial Gargoyle, granting him control over the wind^DC

• In practice, allows Firebrand much greater maneuverability in the air, also allowing him to casually gain height^DC
• Can shoot energy blades to attack enemies^DC
• An enemy with the Crest created a tall tornado that slowly moved across the stage with his wings^DC

Water

Rules over the ocean, turning Firebrand into the Tidal Gargoyle and letting him swim within the seas^DC

• Lets Firebrand swim at high speed^DC
• Shoots bolts which destroy several underwater blocks^DC

Time

Rules over the past and allows the user to travel back in time, turning Firebrand into a Legendary Gargoyle^DC

• Grants the bearer skin like iron, making him take half damage from attacks^DC
• Gives him a powerful breath attack^DC
• When seemingly used by an enemy, allows them to create an energy blade with their wings^DC

Heaven

A Crest of unclear power and abilities, though it's implied to be the strongest of the regular Crests, with Firebrand fighting whoever bears this Crest when he has all five others

• Appears to rejuvenate an enemy on its use after they had just been defeated by Firebrand, starting another phase of the fight. However, after the fight said enemy claims that 'it was merely a shadow', which may suggest that it created a realistic copy of them to fight as they attained a new form in the background^DC
  • Whether it's the boss proper or a copy, under the power of the Heaven Crest this boss could create an energy ball which trails Firebrand as well as another type of energy ball which hangs in the air^DC

Infinity

A unique Crest bearing unimaginable power that can be formed once all of the others are gathered in the same place for an extended period of time, even if they're not all being held by the same person (with this enemy only holding the Heaven Crest, Firebrand holding the others)^DC

• Before an enemy could gain the full power of Infinity, makes a demon a large monster, capable of firing energy beams, balls, and bolts of what might be electricity. This is all while being unharmed by a sea of lava, possibly also created by it^DC
• When used by Firebrand, makes him the Ultimate Gargoyle, capable of practically everything the Earth, Air, Water, and Time Crests can do, as well as the Buster fragment of the Fire Crest^DC
• Firebrand muses that it would be simple to 'reign supreme' using the power of all the Crests

Spells

Across Demon's Crest, Firebrand collects pieces of parchment which he can pay a store to inscribe with single-use spells

• Shadow - Creates a shadow barrier around Firebrand, hurting any nearby weak enemies^DC
• Hold - Causes enemies to be frozen in place^DC
• Imp - Summons an imp which flies about as long as Firebrand can keep it paid, damaging enemies by slamming into them^DC
• Shock - Creates a small earthquake that damages all earthbound enemies for a short period^DC
• Death - Summons an embodiment of Death, killing all regular on-screen enemies and hurting some other bosses^DC

Equipment

• Gremlin Stick - A magic artifact that also allows Firebrand the power of the Block-Buster^GQ
  • Block-Buster allows Firebrand to spit projectiles which destroy stone cubes, with one NPC claiming it can destroy the 'hardest stone'^GQ
• Armour of the Dragon - Protects Firebrand, increasing his vitality^GQ
• Armour of Guile - Is either worn alongside the Armour of the Dragon or is stronger than it, granting him greater vitality^GQ
• Fingernail of the Spectre - Makes Firebrand lighter, letting him fly higher^GQ
• Wings of the Falcon - Lets Firebrand fly longer^GQ
• Candle of Darkness - As well as granting him the Power of Claw, can be lit to cover the surrounding area in darkness, allowing him to talk to a creature that can only be seen in it^GQ
  • Claw allows Firebrand to spit projectiles which, as well as damaging opponents, create platforms on spike walls which he can grab onto and perch on^GQ
• Candle of the Poltergeist - After being lit in front of a powerful demon that had been paralyzed after having his power stolen, allows him to move again^GQ
• Eternal Candle - After gaining it, Firebrand can fly endlessly^GQ
• Potions - Several potions with unique effects on consumption
  • Giniseg - Fully heals Firebrand^DC
  • Mercury - Lets the consumer 'escape from an enemy' by teleporting them to the start of the level^DC
  • Sulfer - Has the drinker 'flee from a battle' by teleporting them back to the overworld map^DC
• Talisman of the Cyclone - Can revive a 'damaged body', acting as extra lives^GQ

Other

• In Gargoyle's Quest, Firebrand can only fly for limited amounts of time, this period being reset every time he lands or latches onto a wall.^GQ This time gets longer with different buffs he gets across the game,^GQ with the final one allowing him to fly infinitely.^GQ
  • This is not an issue for him in Demon's Crest, with him flying and gliding about at great heights without issue^DC
• Clings to the edge of the screen^MvC
• Slashes while swooping past enemies^MvC
• Headbutts after jumping into the air to destroy skulls^DC
• Calls in another Red Arremer to fight alongside him^MvC
• His wings became stronger after being given the Power of the King^GQ
• Was granted the power of Darkfire by his ancestor after gaining the Eternal Candle, potentially the original Firebrand, which is the most powerful breath attack in the game^GQ
• With Luminous Body, turns white and becomes much faster for a short period^MvC
• Teleports away^NxC
• Ghouls can be revived by changing a 'resurrection spell', which mechanically is the game's password system^GQ

Gargoyle's Quest 2 Firebrand

Physicals

• Can cling to sheer surfaces, including stone^GQII

Equipment

• Gremlin Stick - Lets Firebrand use the Magic Tornado, and is used to free a bound powerful demon who had his magic sealed away^GQII
  • The magic lets Firebrand create a small tornado in the air he can stand on as a platform^GQII
• Dragon's Armour - Protects Firebrand, increasing his vitality^GQII
• Essence of the Ghoul Realm - Increases Firebrand's vitality^GQII
• Spectre's Fingernail - Allows Firebrand to jump higher^GQII
• Wings of a Fallen Angel - Lets Firebrand fly further^GQII
• Night Drop - A magic material which grants him the ability to use the Magic Buster and can be crafted into the Candle of Darkness, which covers a room with darkness when lit^GQII
  • Magic Buster are spat projectiles which destroy stone blocks^GQII
• Candle of the Poltergeist - When lit in front of a powerful demon, allows him to move following his paralysis from his magic being sealed away^GQII
• Lethe's Candle - A candle which can have powerful demons imbue their magic in it, granting Firebrand further abilities^GQII
  • Hippogriff's Feather - Gives Firebrand feathers on his wings, allowing him to fly even further^GQII
  • Power of Claw - A new projectile which covers spike walls, allowing Firebrand to cling to them without injury^GQII
  • Candle of the Ghoul Realm - The Lethe's Candle turns to this following a final bit of magic, allowing it to destroy a magic barrier after being lit in front of it^GQII
• Mammon's Hoof, Bereal's Wings, Atlas' Armour - A final batch of magic items, granting him greater jump height, infinite flight, and an extra level of vitality^GQII
• Essence of Soulstream - A rare concoction which fully heals the consumer^GQII

Abilities

• Spits balls of fire^GQII
  • Can shatter gemstone beings with his projectiles^GQII
  • After his true power was unlocked, gained the ability to spit Darkfire, which is the most powerful blast of fire in the game^GQII
• Can fly to a limited degree at first, regaining his energy every time he clings onto something but later gained infinite flight^GQII
  • This seems to just be a gameplay limitation, as one section in the game has him fly upwards constantly without issue^GQII
• Released all of his power, enveloping the Ghoul Realm in flames, sweeping away the Black Light enveloping it as well as the King of Destruction's army^GQII

Other

• Magically amped to jump higher^GQII
  • Happens again later, as well as being allowed to fly further^GQII
• Can gain the Power of Maelstrom, which counts as an extra life^GQII

Other Red Arremers

Physicals

• Easily flies carrying the princess^WS
• Hit other characters into the air with physical strikes^NxC
• Can take a couple hits from Sir Arthur using a variety of weapons, such as lances^G , holy shields^G , fire^G , and magic energy before being killed^S
  • In Super Ghouls 'n Ghosts, the attacks are capable of destroying stone gargoyles^S
• Can take a great number of varying kinds of attacks which hit them into the air^NxC

Abilities

• Spits fireballs^U
  • Can knock people back^SNK
  • Hit people into the air^NxC
  • Spits a large, fast fireball forwards^SNK
  • Uses a fireball which bursts into a tall, brief pillar of fire^SNK
  • In the original game, appear to spit something closer to balls of energy than fire^G
• Create bats which fly along the ground, bursting into fire on contact^SNK
• Summons creatures which fly through the air, bursting into fire on contact or after some time has elapsed^SNK
• Summons a small zombie^SNK
• Transforms defeated opponents, making them monstrous^SNK

Other

• Wears a clawed weapon on its arm^SNK

"Ruggagh gigh grigaugh... Gyah gyah gyah!" ("Tell the people of your world... Fear the Red Blaze!")

I had to do a lot of weird editing to convert it from copypasted PDF to something reddit wouldn't munge too much. I've seen a lot of these and there are a bunch I've been wanting to see for a while. God I hate PDFs. When I'm king it will be a capital offense to use them for anything other than formatting for printers. Reddit really needs to improve their formatting capabilities as well, single line spacing without making everthing look like code and columnar arranging too. These features have been available since the days of typewriters.
The Idjits don't mention the timezone to which they are referring.

 SATURDAY, APRIL 1 THE EARLY YEARS 6:00 AM Beau Brummel (1924) 8:30 AM Disraeli (1929) 10:00 AM Noah’s Ark (1929) 12:00 PM The Dawn Patrol (1930) (AKA FLIGHT COMMANDER) 2:00 PM Night Nurse (1931) 

Seen it, Loved it, Joan Blondell and Barbara Stanwyck, Duh

 3:30 PM Jewel Robbery (1932) 

Seen it, Loved it, William Powell and Kay Francis, Duh

 What a Character Ned Sparks (interstitial) 4:45 PM Blessed Event (1932) Marlo Thomas on Loretta Young (interstitial) 6:15 PM Employee’s Entrance (1933) 

Waned to see it for a long time

HOW IT STARTED AND THE DAWN OF SOUND Hollywood Steps Out (1941) (cartoon) 8:00 PM The Brothers Warner (2007) Silents, Please! (interstitial) 9:45 PM The Clash of the Wolves (1925) 11:15 PM Cinema Finds Its Voice (2023) (DOCUMENTARY ABOUT SOUND IN FILM) 12:30 AM Vitaphone shorts Gus Arnheim and His Cocoanut Grove Orchestra (1927) Baby Rose Marie The Child Wonder (1929) 

I've seen her on the Dick Van Dyke show and Hollywood Squares and briefly in International House when I had to look her up to see that it was the same person

 Lambchops (1929) (8m) Blackface and Hollywood (interstitial) 1:15 AM The Jazz Singer (1927) Will H. Hays Introduces Vitaphone (1926) (Vitaphone short) 3:00 AM Don Juan (1926) 5:00 AM Lights of New York (1928) SUNDAY, APRIL 2 WARNER JOINS A GANG 6:30 AM Little Caesar (1931) 

Seen it, It was OK

 King for a Day (1934) 8:30 AM G-Men (1935) 

Seen it, It was OK

 Mills Blue Rhythm Band (1933) 10:15 AM Bullets or Ballots (1936) 

Seen it, Loved it, Joan Blondell, Duh

 Swing Cat’s Jamboree (1938) 12:00 PM Each Dawn I Die (1939) Claude Hopkins and His Band in Barber Shop Blues 2:00 PM High Sierra (1941) Cab Calloway and His Orchestra (1937) Angelica Huston on John & Walter Huston (interstitial) 4:00 PM Key Largo (1948) Racketeer Rabbit (1946) (cartoon) 6:00 PM Larceny, Inc. (1942) PRE-CODE CLASSICS AND AN EMPHASIS ON REALISM Bugsy and Mugsy (1957) (cartoon) Melanie Griffith on Jean Harlow (interstitial) 8:00 PM The Public Enemy (1933) The Scarlet Pumpernickel (1950) (cartoon) 9:45 PM Jack L. Warner: The Last Mogul (1993) Laura Dern on Barbara Stanwyck (interstitial) 11:45 PM Baby Face (1933) 1:15 AM One Way Passage (1932) NEWLY REMASTERED IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE FILM FOUNDATION 2:45 AM Two Seconds (1932) 4:15 AM Life Begins (1932) MONDAY, APRIL 3 CHOREOGRAPHY BY BUSBY BERKELEY 

Seen em all, all good. I didn't know they were allowed to get as close to naked as they did in Fashions back then

 5:30 AM Fashions of 1934 (1934) 7:00 AM Dames (1934) 8:45 AM Gold Diggers of 1937 (1936) MUSIC BY MAX STEINER 10:30 AM Max Steiner: Maestro of Movie Music (2021) 12:45 PM The Adventures of Mark Twain (1944) Rhapsody Rabbit (1947) (cartoon) 3:15 PM Rhapsody in Blue (1945) 5:45 PM Helen of Troy (1956) (TFF remaster) GREAT DIRECTORS AT WARNER BROTHERS WILLIAM A. WELLMAN Big House Bunny (1950) (Cartoon) Special introduction by Alexander Payne 8:00 PM Safe in Hell (1931) NEWLY REMASTERED IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE FILM FOUNDATION Hollywood by Storm William Wellman (interstitial) 9:30 PM Heroes for Sale (1933) 

Seen it, It's what made me really apprecioate Aline MacMahon. I still think they had the conceits of three of four movies.

MERVYN LEROY Page Miss Glory (1936) (cartoon) 11:00 PM Page Miss Glory (1935) The Making of a Great Motion Picture (1936) 12:45 AM Anthony Adverse (1936) LLOYD BACON 3:15 AM Marked Woman (1937) 5:00 AM Cain and Mabel (1936) TUESDAY, APRIL 4 STUDIO CONTRACT PLAYERS MYRNA LOY 6:30 AM The Great Divide (1929) Julianne Moore on Myrna Loy (interstitial) 7:45 AM The Truth About Youth (1930) 

I haven't seen any of these

BEBE DANIELS 9:00 AM My Past (1931) 10:15 AM The Maltese Falcon (1931) 

I wrote in an earlier post that the women in this one are better than the women in the remake. I stand by that.

DOLORES DEL RIO 11:45 AM Madame du Barry (1934) 1:15 PM In Caliente (1935) ANN DVORAK 2:45 PM Love is a Racket (1932) 4:00 PM Murder in the Clouds (1934) GLENDA FARRELL 5:15 PM Smart Blonde (1937) 6:30 PM Little Big Shot (1935) GINGER ROGERS Stage Door Cartoon (1944) (cartoon) Nigel Lythgoe on Ginger Rogers (interstitial) 8:00 PM 42nd Street (1933) 

Seen it, story is basic but I love her

 An All-Colored Vaudeville Show (1935) 10:00 PM Gold Diggers of 1933 (1933) JOAN BLONDELL 11:45 PM Footlight Parade (1933) 1:45 AM Three on a Match (1932) 

Both of these are totally awesome

KAY FRANCIS 3:00 AM Mary Stevens, M.D. (1933) 4:30 AM I Found Stella Parish (1935) 

I've not seen either. Why to they have to be at the butt crack of dawn?

 WEDNESDAY, APRIL 5 STUDIO CONTRACT PLAYERS JOHN BARRYMORE 

Can't stand him

 6:00 AM When a Man Loves (1927) 8:00 AM Svengali (1931) JOE E. BROWN 9:30 AM You Said a Mouthful (1932) Porky’s Baseball Broadcast (1940) (cartoon) 11:00 AM Elmer, the Great (1933) PAT O’BRIEN 12:30 PM Oil for the Lamps of China (1935) 2:30 PM The Great O’Malley (1937) DICK POWELL 4:00 PM Flirtation Walk (1934) 6:00 PM Gold Diggers of 1935 (1935) 

Can't go wrong with Busby Berkeley. I don't understand why the poster image for 42nd street has the dancers in costumes from this one though

EDWARD G. ROBINSON Buccaneer Bunny (1948) (cartoon) Chaz Palminteri on Edward G. Robinson (interstitial) 8:00 PM The Sea Wolf (1941) 9:45 PM Brother Orchid (1940) 

Two of his I haven't seen

PAUL MUNI 11:30 PM The Life of Emile Zola (1937) 1:45 AM The Story of Louis Pasteur (1936) 

I love his biopics. The rest is hit or miss

GEORGE BRENT 3:30 AM So Big! (1932) 

I don't know who George Brent is but its a Barbara Stanwyck movie so see it.

 5:00 AM From Headquarters (1933) THURSDAY, APRIL 6 WARNER GOES TO SCHOOL 6:30 AM The Corn is Green (1945) 8:30 AM Our Miss Brooks (1957) 10:00 AM Up the Down Staircase (1967) WARNER JOINS THE TEAM 12:15 PM Jim Thorpe – All-American (1951) Baseball Bugs (1946) (cartoon) 2:15 PM The Winning Team (1952) Mary Anne Owen on Donna Reed (interstitial) 4:00 PM Trouble Along the Way (1953) 6:00 PM One on One (1977) GREAT DIRECTORS AT WARNER BROTHERS MICHAEL CURTIZ Rabbit Hood (1949) (cartoon) 8:00 PM The Adventures of Robin Hood (1938) 

I've wanted to see this for a while even though Errol Flynn didn't impress me in Captain Blood.

 Sons of Liberty (1939) (directed by Michael Curtiz) 10:00 PM Life with Father (1947) 

Seen it, Loved it. I've not seen a bad William Powell movie.

WILLIAM WYLER William Wyler Father and Filmmaker (interstitial) 12:15 AM Jezebel (1938) 2:15 AM The Letter (1940) ARCHIE MAYO 4:00 AM Bordertown (1935) 5:45 AM The Life of Jimmy Dolan (1933) FRIDAY, APRIL 7 WARNER LEARNS TO READ 7:15 AM Moby Dick (1930) 8:45 AM The Old Man and the Sea (1958) Molly Haskell on King Vidor (interstitial) 10:15 AM The Fountainhead (1949) 

Classic example of why should watch the movie before reading the book to avoid disappointment.

WARNER STUDIES HISTORY 12:15 PM When Dinosaurs Ruled the Earth (1971) 2:00 PM The Private Lives of Elizabeth and Essex (1939) The Declaration of Independence (1938) (short) 4:15 PM Alexander Hamilton (1931) 5:30 PM The Charge of the Light Brigade (1936) A STUDIO THAT TAKESASTAND What’s Opera, Doc? (1957) (cartoon) 8:00 PM They Won’t Forget (1937) Special introduction by Martin Scorsese 10:00 PM Storm Warning (1951) NEWLY REMASTERED IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE FILM FOUNDATION 12:00 AM Confessions of a Nazi Spy (1939) 2:00 AM I Am a Fugitive from a Chain Gang (1932) 

Not Muni's best

 4:00 AM The Mayor of Hell (1933) SATURDAY, APRIL 8 WARNER COMES OF AGE 6:00 AM Wild Boys of the Road (1933) 

Mostly good, some implausibilities

 7:30 AM Kings Row (1942) A Mutt in a Rut (1959) (cartoon) 10:00 AM Good-Bye, My Lady (1956) 11:45 AM Splendor in the Grass (1961) 2:00 PM The Learning Tree (1969) 4:00 PM Summer of ’42 (1971) 6:00 PM A Little Romance (1979) WARNER AT WAR Carrotblanca (1995) (cartoon) Patricia Clarkson on Ingrid Bergman (interstitial) 8:00 PM Casablanca (1942) 

No praise I could heap upon it that hasn't been done before.

 Tony Curtis on Cary Grant (interstitial) 10:00 PM Destination Tokyo (1943) 12:30 AM Objective, Burma (1945) 3:00 AM This is the Army (1943) 5:15 AM Across the Pacific (1942) SUNDAY, APRIL 9 WARNER FINDS RELIGION 7:00 AM The Green Pastures (1936) 

Seen it, It certainly has more than it's fair share of black stereotypes, even for it's day. I wonder if this is an accurate representation of rural vs urban blacks. I'd love to know what the black press of the day thought about it.

 9:00 AM Sergeant York (1941) Easter Yeggs (1947) (cartoon) What a Character Beulah Bondi (interstitial) 11:30 AM One Foot in Heaven (1941) 1:30 PM The Miracle of Our Lady of Fatima (1952) Vanessa Redgrave on Fred Zinnemann (interstitial) 3:15 PM The Nun’s Story (1959) 6:00 PM Oh, God! (1977) 

Saw it in theaters, it was cute

THE POSTWAR YEARS AND THE TELEVISION ERA A Star is Bored (1956) (cartoon) Above Limitations: George Cukor (interstitial) 8:00 PM A Star is Born (1954) Special introduction by Robyn Sklaren and Daphne Dentz 11:15 PM A Lion is in the Streets (1953) NEWLY REMASTERED IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE FILM FOUNDATION 1:00 AM A Streetcar Named Desire (1951) 3:15 AM The FBI Story (1959) MONDAY, APRIL 10 SHOT AT TEDDINGTON, WARNER’S BRITISH STUDIOS 6:00 AM Crime Unlimited (1935) 7:15 AM Something Always Happens (1934) 8:30 AM Crown vs. Stevens (1936) 9:45 AM Mr. Cohen Takes a Walk ( AKA FATHERTAKE SAWALK ) (1936) 11:15 AM Jack L. Warner The Last Mogul (1993) PRODUCED BY HAMMER, DISTRIBUTED BY WARNER 1:15 PM The Curse of Frankenstein (1957) 2:45 PM Frankenstein Must be Destroyed (1970) Hair-Raising Hare (1946) (cartoon) 4:30 PM Dracula has Risen from the Grave (1969) 6:15 PM Taste the Blood of Dracula (1970) GREAT DIRECTORS AT WARNER BROTHERS JOHN HUSTON 14 Carrot Rabbit (1952) (cartoon) Men in Crisis The Films of John Huston (interstitial) 8:00 PM The Treasure of the Sierra Madre (1948) 10:45 PM In This Our Life (1943) RAOUL WALSH 12:30 AM The True Adventures of Raoul Walsh (2014) ( DOC UMENTARY ) 2:30 AM The Roaring Twenties (1939) WILLIAM DIETERLE 4:30 AM Juarez (1939) 6:45 AM Dr. Ehrlich’s Magic Bullet (1940) TUESDAY, APRIL 11 STUDIO CONTRACT PLAYERS PRISCILLA LANE 8:30 AM Yes, My Darling Daughter (1939) 10:15 AM Arsenic and Old Lace (1944) 

This is what you get when you send Capra out with out Riskin and Swerling, not very good. They couldn't even get Boris Karloff to play the guy who looks like Boris Karloff.

IDA LUPINO Lee Grant on Ida Lupino (interstitial) 12:30 PM Out of the Fog (1941) 2:30 PM The Hard Way (1943) MARY ASTOR 4:30 PM Scandal The Trial of Mary Astor (2018) 6:00 PM The Great Lie (1941) BETTE DAVIS Tweety’s S.O.S. (1951) (cartoon) Meryl Streep on Bette Davis (interstitial) 8:00 PM Now, Voyager (1942) 10:15 PM Dark Victory (1939) OLIVIA DE HAVILLAND Special introduction by Wes Anderson 12:15 AM The Strawberry Blonde (1941) 2:30 AM Princess O’Rourke (1943) ANN SHERIDAN 4:15 AM City for Conquest (1940) 6:15 AM Nora Prentiss (1947) WEDNESDAY, APRIL 12 STUDIO CONTRACT PLAYERS DOUGLAS FAIRBANKS, JR. 8:15 AM Union Depot (1932) 

He should have done more of this instead of trying to step into his dad's shoes

 9:30 AM Parachute Jumper (1933) JOHN GARFIELD 11:15 AM They Made Me a Criminal (1939) 1:00 PM Air Force (1943) CLAUDE RAINS Sir John Gielgud on Claude Rains (interstitial) 3:15 PM Passage to Marseille (1944) 5:15 PM Mr. Skeffington (1944) JAMES CAGNEY Bugs and Thugs (1954) (cartoon) George C. Scott on James Cagney (interstitial) 8:00 PM White Heat (1949) Blackface and Hollywood (interstitial) Yankee Doodle Daffy (1943) (cartoon) 10:30 PM Yankee Doodle Dandy (1942) ERROL FLYNN 12:45 AM Gentleman Jim (1942) 2:45 AM The Sea Hawk (1940) GEORGE RAFT 5:00 AM Manpower (1941) 6:45 AM Background to Danger (1943) THURSDAY, APRIL 13 WARNER LEARNS TO DRIVE 8:15 AM The Crowd Roars (1932) 9:45 AM They Drive by Night (1940) There Auto Be a Law (1953) (cartoon) 11:30 AM Greased Lightning (1977) WARNER LEARNS TO FLY 1:30 PM The Dawn Patrol (1938) Jet Jockeys in Love The Making of Chain Lightning (TCM original) 3:15 PM Chain Lightning (1950) Go Fly a Kit (1957) (cartoon) 5:30 PM The Spirit of St. Louis (1957) GREAT DIRECTORS AT WARNER BROTHERS JOHN FORD Drip-Along Daffy (1951) (cartoon) Meet John Ford (interstitial) 8:00 PM The Searchers (1956) 10:15 PM Sergeant Rutledge (1960) ELIA KAZAN The Immigrant Experience (interstitial) 12:15 AM America, America (1963) 3:15 AM The Arrangement (1969) FRIDAY, APRIL 14 WARNER JOINS THE BAND Michael Douglas on Kirk Douglas (interstitial) 6:00 AM Young Man with a Horn (1950) 8:00 AM Blues in the Night (1941) 9:30 AM Sparkle (1976) WARNER RUNS FOR OFFICE 11:30 AM Kisses for My President (1964) 1:30 PM Flamingo Road (1949) 3:30 PM The Candidate (1972) Ballot Box Bunny (1951) (cartoon) 5:30 PM A Face in the Crowd (1957) EARLY CINEMASCOPE Sahara Hare (1955) (cartoon) Special introduction by Martin Scorsese 8:00 PM The Land of the Pharaohs (1955) NEWLY REMASTERED IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE FILM FOUNDATION Peter and Jane Fonda on Henry Fonda (interstitial) 10:00 PM Mister Roberts (1955) 

At least it has a happy ending where they sent him to live on a farm where he lives to this day.

SHOT FOR 3D Prince Albert on Grace Kelly (interstitial) 12:15 AM Dial M for Murder (1954) 2:15 AM House of Wax (1953) 

Saw it in a re-released theatrical 3D showing. It was as unimpressive then as it is now.

 4:00 AM The Bounty Hunter (1954) SATURDAY, APRIL 15 WARNER GETS SCARED 5:30 AM Doctor X (1932) What a Character: Frank McHugh (interstitial) 7:00 AM The Mystery of the Wax Museum (1933) Good Morning, Eve (1934) (short) Ant-Pasted (1953) (cartoon) 9:00 AM Them! (1954) 

I thought this was American International or some such

 The Haunted Mouse (1941) (cartoon) 11:00 AM The Bad Seed (1956) 1:30 PM Dead Ringer (1964) 3:30 PM What Ever Happened to Baby Jane (1962) 6:00 PM Wait Until Dark (1967) WARNER LOOKS TO BROADWAY FOR INSPIRATION 

That was a bad idea.

 Lumber Jerks (1955) (cartoon) 8:00 PM My Fair Lady (1964) 11:00 PM The Music Man (1962) 1:45 AM Gypsy (1962) 4:15 AM Camelot (1967) SUNDAY, APRIL 16 WARNER TURNS TO CRIME 8:00 AM The Petrified Forest (1936) 

Saw it. It was OK. I was never a Leslie Howard fan and Bette Davis while more natural here than in most movies was not convincing as a girl still in or barely out of her teens.

 9:30 AM Dark Passage (1947) 11:30 AM Crime Wave (1954) Bullitt: Anatomy of a Car Chase (TCM original) 1:00 PM Bullitt (1968) 3:30 PM The Yakuza (1974) 5:30 PM Dog Day Afternoon (1975) 

Saw it in the theater, barely remember it

WARNER BROTHERS LEADSAREVOLUTION IN FILMMAKING Rabbit Fire (1951) (cartoon) Paul Newman on Elizabeth Taylor (interstitial) 8:00 PM Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (1966) 10:30 PM Cool Hand Luke (1967) 12:45 AM The Wild Bunch (1969) 3:15 AM Petulia (1968) 5:15 AM The Fox (1968) MONDAY, APRIL 17 BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD – WARNER BROTHERS ANIMATED FEATURES 7:15 AM Gay Purr-ee (1962) 8:45 AM Treasure Island (1973) 10:30 AM The Incredible Mr. Limpet (1964) 

Saw it a long time ago on TV. IIRC it's a strange story about a guy who neglects his girlfriend for his fish, falls off a pier and turns into a fish and makes noises to mis-direct torpedoes from German U-boats.

THE RAT PACK AT WARNER BROTHERS Swooner Crooner (1944) (cartoon) 12:30 PM Oceans 11 (1960) 3:00 PM 4 for Texas (1963) Nancy Sinatra on Frank Sinatra (interstitial) 5:15 PM Robin and the 7 Hoods (1964) GREAT DIRECTORS AT WARNER BROTHERS HOWARD HAWKS Bugs Bunny Rides Again (1948) (cartoon) Special introduction by Martin Scorsese 8:00 PM Rio Bravo (1959) TELEVISION PREMIERE OFNEW RESTORATION IN PARTNER SHIP WITH THE FILM FOUNDATION Peter Bogdanovich on Howard Hawks (interstitial) 10:30 PM The Big Sleep (1946) ALFRED HITCHCOCK Zipping Along (1953) (cartoon) 1:00 AM Strangers on a Train (1951) 3:00 AM I Confess (1953) VINCENT SHERMAN 5:00 AM All Through the Night (1942) 7:00 AM Old Acquaintance (1943) TUESDAY, APRIL 18 STUDIO CONTRACT PLAYERS JOAN LESLIE 9:00 AM The Male Animal (1942) 10:45 AM Two Guys from Milwaukee (1946) VIRGINIA MAYO 12:15 PM Colorado Territory (1949) 2:00 PM The West Point Story (1950) JANE WYMAN 4:00 PM Johnny Belinda (1948) The Last Hungry Cat (1961) (cartoon) 6:00 PM Stage Fright (1950) JOAN CRAWFORD Duck Amuck (1953) (cartoon) Ann Blyth on Joan Crawford (interstitial) 8:00 PM Mildred Pierce (1945) 10:15 PM Joan Crawford: The Ultimate Movie Star (2002) LAUREN BACALL Gregory Peck on Lauren Bacall (interstitial) 12:00 AM To Have and Have Not (1944) 2:00 AM Harper (1966) GERALDINE FITZGERALD 4:15 AM Watch on the Rhine (1943) 6:15 AM Nobody Lives Forever (1946) WEDNESDAY, APRIL 19 STUDIO CONTRACT PLAYERS SYDNEY GREENSTREET 8:00 AM The Mask of Dimitrios (1944) 10:00 AM Three Strangers (1946) RONALD REAGAN 12:00 PM Knute Rockne – All-American (1940) 2:00 PM The Hasty Heart (1949) 

Seen it, Liked it, but I think it was a play first. It's got that one set feel.

PAUL HENREID Monica Henreid on Paul Henreid (interstitial) 3:45 PM Between Two Worlds (1944) 5:45 PM Deception (1946) HUMPHREY BOGART Slick Hare (1947) (cartoon) How Bogart Became a Star (interstitial) 8:00 PM Black Legion (1937) 10:00 PM The Maltese Falcon (1941) 

Watch the original for the women, this one for the men.

TAB HUNTER 12:00 AM Tab Hunter Confidential (2015) 1:45 AM Battle Cry (1955) PETER LORRE 4:30 AM The Beast with Five Fingers (1946) 6:00 AM The Verdict (1946) THURSDAY, APRIL 20 WARNER GOES TO COURT 7:30 AM Dust be My Destiny (1939) 9:00 AM The Wrong Man (1956) 11:00 AM The Young Philadelphians (1959) WARNER GOES TO PRISON Burt Reynolds on Spencer Tracy (interstitial) 1:30 PM 20,000 Years in Sing Sing (1932) 

I remember seeing it but nothing else

 3:00 PM San Quentin (1937) 4:30 PM Blackwell’s Island (1939) 6:00 PM Inside the Walls of Folsom Prison (1951) GREAT DIRECTORS AT WARNER BROTHERS MARTIN SCORSESE Rabbit Seasoning (1952) (cartoon) 8:00 PM Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore (1974) 10:15 PM Mean Streets (1973) STANLEY KUBRICK 12:15 AM Full Metal Jacket (1987) 2:30 AM A Clockwork Orange (1971) 

Kubrick should have learned from Billy Wilder that the best director is the one that you don't see.

FRANCIS FORD COPPOLA 5:00 AM The Rain People (1969) 6:45 AM Finian’s Rainbow (1968) FRIDAY, APRIL 21 WARNER HEADS SOUTH 9:15 AM The Cabin in the Cotton (1932) 10:45 AM The Heart is a Lonely Hunter (1968) Hillbilly Hare (1950) (cartoon) 1:00 PM Ode to Billy Joe (1976) WARNER GOES WEST 3:00 PM The Oklahoma Kid (1939) 4:30 PM Dodge City (1939) 6:15 PM Along the Great Divide (1951) SEVEN ARTS COMES IN AS JACK PREPARES TO LEAVE Baby Buggy Bunny (1954) (cartoon) 8:00 PM Bonnie and Clyde (1967) Special introduction by Ethan Hawke 10:00 PM Rachel, Rachel (1968) NEWLY REMASTERED IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE FILM FOUNDATION 12:00 AM Firecreek (1968) 2:00 AM Reflections in a Golden Eye (1967) 4:00 AM Start the Revolution Without Me (1970) SATURDAY, APRIL 22 WARNER SEEKS ADVENTURE 5:45 AM Captain Blood (1935) 

Meh

 8:00 AM Adventures of Don Juan (1948) Captain Hareblower (1954) (cartoon) 10:00 AM Captain Horatio Hornblower (1951) 12:00 PM The Master of Ballantrae (1953) 1:30 PM The Valley of Gwangi (1969) 3:15 PM The Great Race (1965) 6:00 PM Time After Time (1979) 

I haven't thought if this one in ages. I have to see it again.

WARNER EMBRACESANEW HOLLYWOOD What’s Up, Doc? (1950) (cartoon) 8:00 PM All the President’s Men (1976) 10:30 PM The Exorcist (1973) Jerry Schatzberg: Reality in Focus (interstitial) 12:45 AM Scarecrow (1973) 3:00 AM Badlands (1973): Robert Duvall on Gene Hackman (interstitial) 4:45 AM Night Moves (1975) SUNDAY, APRIL 23 WARNER FALLS IN LOVE 6:30 AM A Midsummer Night’s Dream (1935) 9:00 AM All This and Heaven Too (1940) 11:30 AM A Warm December (1973) Scent-imental Romeo (1951) (cartoon) 1:30 PM Fanny (1961) 4:00 PM The Prince and the Showgirl (1957) 6:00 PM The Goodbye Girl (1977) THE SUPERHERO ERA BEGINS... Duck Dodgers in the 24 1⁄2th Century (1953) (cartoon) 8:00 PM Superman (1978) 10:30 PM Batman (1989) 

Both great

...AND WOMEN FINALLY HAVEASAY 12:45 AM Girlfriends (1978) 2:30 AM Cookie (1989) 4:15 AM The Brothers Warner (2007) MONDAY, APRIL 24 CULT CLASSICS 6:00 AM Untamed Youth (1957) 8:00 AM The Swarm (1978) (theatrical version) 10:00 AM Big Wednesday (1978) 12:15 PM Over the Edge (1979) 2:00 PM The Last of Sheila (1973) 4:15 PM It’s Alive (1974) 6:00 PM The Omega Man (1971) GREAT DIRECTORS AT WARNER BROTHERS STEVEN SPIELBERG One Froggy Evening (1955) (cartoon) 8:00 PM The Color Purple (1985) 11:00 PM Empire of the Sun (1987) ROBERT ALTMAN 2:00 AM McCabe and Mrs. Miller (1971) 4:15 AM Countdown (1967) TUESDAY, APRIL 25 STUDIO CONTRACT PLAYERS ALEXIS SMITH 6:00 AM Night and Day (1946) 8:30 AM San Antonio (1945) ELEANOR PARKER 10:45 AM Pride of the Marines (1945) 1:00 PM Caged (1950) CAROL BAKER 3:00 PM Baby Doll (1956) 5:00 PM Cheyenne Autumn (1964) DORIS DAY Don’t Look Now (1936) (cartoon) Is it Love or Is it Conscription (Soundie) 8:00 PM Romance on the High Seas (1948) Doris Day on Doris Day (interstitial) 10:00 PM Calamity Jane (1953) NATALIE WOOD Robert Redford on Natalie Wood (interstitial) 12:00 AM Inside Daisy Clover (1965) 2:15 AM Sex and the Single Girl (1964) PATRICIA NEAL 4:15 AM Bright Leaf (1950) 6:15 AM The Breaking Point (1950) WEDNESDAY, APRIL 26 STUDIO CONTRACT PLAYERS JACK CARSON 8:00 AM Roughly Speaking (1945) 10:00 AM John Loves Mary (1949) JAMES GARNER 11:45 AM Up Periscope (1959) 1:45 PM Cash McCall (1960) TROY DONAHUE 3:30 PM A Summer Place (1959) 5:45 PM Rome Adventure (1962) JAMES DEAN Walky Talky Hawky (1946) (cartoon) Special introductions by Joanna Hogg and Wes Anderson 8:00 PM East of Eden (1955) 10:15 PM Rebel Without a Cause (1955) 12:15 AM Giant (1956) 3:45 AM Return to Giant (1996) 4:45 AM George Stevens: A Filmmaker’s Journey (1984) THURSDAY, APRIL 27 WARNER GETS MARRIED What a Character: William Frawley (interstitial) 6:45 AM The Bride Came C.O.D. (1941) What a Character: Hattie McDaniel (interstitial) 8:30 AM Janie Gets Married (1946) 10:15 AM June Bride (1948) WARNER RAISESAFAMILY 12:00 PM Room for One More (1952) 1:45 PM Four Daughters (1938) Feed the Kitty (1952) (cartoon) 3:30 PM Spencer’s Mountain (1963) 5:30 PM The Sundowners (1960) GREAT DIRECTORS AT WARNER BROTHERS CLINT EASTWOOD The Three Little Bops (1957) (cartoon) 8:00 PM Bird (1988) 11:00 PM Unforgiven (1992) ALAN J. PAKULA 1:30 AM Klute (1971) 3:30 AM Rollover (1981) SIDNEY LUMET 5:30 AM Bye Bye Braverman (1968) 7:15 AM Deathtrap (1982) FRIDAY, APRIL 28 WARNER GOESALITTLE BIT COUNTRY 9:15 AM Every Which Way But Loose (1978) 11:15 AM Honeysuckle Rose (1980) WARNER GOESALITTLE BIT ROCK ‘N ROLL Kurt Russell on Elvis Presley (interstitial) 1:30 PM This is Elvis (1981) 3:30 PM The Song Remains the Same (1976) 6:00 PM Jimi Hendrix (1973) WARNER BROTHERS REINVENTS THE CONCERT FILM... Long-Haired Hare (1949) (cartoon) 8:00 PM Woodstock The Director’s Cut (1970) ...AND VENTURES INTO BLAXPLOITATION The Best of Blaxploitation (interstitial) 12:00 AM Super Fly (1972) 2:00 AM Black Belt Jones (1974) 3:30 AM Cleopatra Jones (1973) 5:00 AM Black Samson (1974) SATURDAY, APRIL 29 WARNER HAS SOME FUN What a Character: Edward Brophy (interstitial) 6:30 AM A Slight Case of Murder (1938) What a Character: Guy Kibbee (interstitial) 8:00 AM The Horn Blows at Midnight (1945) What a Character: Mary Wickes (interstitial) 9:30 AM The Man Who Came to Dinner (1942) 11:30 AM No Time for Sergeants (1958) 1:45 PM Auntie Mame (1958) 4:15 PM What’s Up, Doc? (1972) 6:00 PM The In-Laws (1979) INTIMATE STORIES BREAK THROUGH My Bunny Lies Over the Sea (1948) (cartoon) 8:00 PM Local Hero (1983) 10:00 PM Crossing Delancey (1988) 12:00 AM Torch Song Trilogy (1988) 2:30 AM Running on Empty (1988) 4:30 AM The Great Santini (1979) SUNDAY, APRIL 30 WARNER SEEKS THE TRUTH 6:30 AM Sunrise at Campobello (1960) 9:00 AM A Cry in the Dark (1988) Tortoise Beats Hare (1941) (cartoon) 11:30 AM Chariots of Fire (1981) 2:00 PM The Right Stuff (1983) 5:30 PM The Killing Fields (1984) AND THE TRADITION CONTINUES, WHERE EVERY STORY MATTERS Rabbit of Seville (1950) (cartoon) 8:00 PM Malcolm X (1992) 11:30 PM Million Dollar Baby (2004) 2:00 AM Argo (2012) OVERNIGHT FEATURE 4:15 AM Going in Style (1979) 

Alien-Nation Chapter 159: Rationale

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Alien-Nation Discord
Buy Me A Coffee for the Author
“Take a break, E. You’ve been working on wiring for over an hour straight, and your work’s getting sloppy.”
I sat up and examined my handiwork. With a quick look over to the person next to me for comparison just to make certain, I knew Larry was right. The ugly globs I’d laid down were far from the perfect little silver hershey kisses G-Man was somehow still mechanically pumping out with his soldering iron.
It wasn’t fair. He’d won the shop competition for the pinewood derby, apparently had gone to states for TSA, outdid my own bomb designs, and now this. I forced myself to not give a look of envy up at the attentive boy, and instead forced myself to let it go.
Standing from the stool and stretching over the workbench, I closed the panel on the mostly-complete railgun, observing the dozen or so completed latest models that leaned up against the interior walls of the old cabin. I picked up a practice knife from where it lay near the exit and stepped out, letting my eyes adjust to the bright daylight. Maybe getting a little exercise as a break would freshen me back up. At least I had this.
Larry followed me out and sat on a felled tree trunk that had been dragged over where the old stone fireplace had been, eating an apple. “You know, this place is getting reinforced pretty heavily. It already had sentry posts, some dugouts, even some trenches. But now I see poured concrete, earthen mounds, storage, ammo, and rations stockpiled, enough explosives in that shed to level the damn place, and outhouses with septic systems. Now it’s got a command outpost and construction going on? If this were the civil war, we’d be all set to repel Confederates. I was worried you were gonna start living out here, like, forever.”
“I considered it,” I admitted. “With what’s coming, though, I think I need to sleep elsewhere.”
The old veteran gave me a long stare. “What are you planning, boy?”
“Well, it’s not really that I have something I’m ‘planning to do’, so much as something I’m ‘planning for’. You know, contingencies. A couple resistance cells have gone dark.” I noted his body language shift as he started to rise straight, and I put a hand up so I could finish. “Just a couple so far, perhaps to be expected after a major mobilization and strike, and also given the rapid rate of our growth. They’re not the first to go dark, but…a few more have given warning signs that they’re potentially compromised. Some of them have members not turning up for meetings, so they’re shifting to new locations for future meetings and letting us know. Obviously, they are concerned. I’m working on both reassuring them, while planning on mitigating the consequences if they’re right.”
He gave a nod, and then waved a hand for me to go on.
“I think we may need to quietly collect and stash some of those concerned people here. Anyone that we do relocate to Camp Death up here will certainly be stressed, though, and maybe even blame me for having to flee for their lives. So, while there’s a plan for handling the situation, the downside is, I can’t be here, either. I also can’t exactly brush my teeth with my mask on, you know- and having people who are likely to end up captured seeing my face? Recipe for disaster.”
“Okay, you bring them up here. Then what? Are we manning this place full time? I’ve noticed we’ve got sentries almost around the clock now.”
“Not really staffing it. While we’ve got material and such, the place just plain isn’t built for a lot of people to live here full-time. They’ll probably put up with it for a few days, while we do all we can to speed up moving them over into another state. Make them our expeditionary force. Sam’s arranging passes and fake IDs with his contacts in Maryland.”
“That’s making the best of things, I suppose. But you seem nervous.”
“This is the first time I’ve been stuck on the defensive, and Vendetta thinks we should pre-empt whatever the Shil’vati are up to, and carry out yet another strike. I agree with the sentiment, but…we’ve got Operation Town Hall coming up fast, just before the primary. Can’t pre-empt that without rushing something, and God, if it goes badly, it would really wreck Town Hall’s momentum if we fall flat on our faces with everyone’s eyes on us.” I laughed nervously, because the alternative was to be wracked with fear of the unknown and start trembling.
“Then just sit tight until then. Shouldn’t be too hard- just a few days of waiting.” He seemed to take stock of me. “Then again, waiting when you’re young is…difficult.”
I swallowed, unable to meet the gaze of his mask. “I’d agree that it’s just waiting, except Verns says he’s hearing whispers. I’ve taken some precautions but they’re a band aid to prevent the worst case scenario, which could blow a hole in our side. That might even hinter Town Hall and take the initiative from us.”
“You know, you seem to be thinking about too many things at once. If you need to relax, let off a little steam, I’d understand.”
I flipped the practice knife over in my hand and caught it by the handle. Pure showmanship, but I wanted to get my coordination back and settle my nerves, and I took a couple practice jabs, then tried it again, this time catching the dummy knife in my off-hand, repeating the process. “We’re all hanging out this weekend, actually. George’s birthday. Trying to relax.”
“Relaxing with a certain set of twins?”
I fumbled the next toss, dropping the dummy knife, then bent down to scoop the rubber blade up to try again. I’d forgotten how Larry liked to try and break my ‘bearing,’ so that I’d learn to focus and ignore distractions, and I could see his grin as I came up. He’d gotten me good.
“I know you’re joking, but what I’m afraid of is my timing. I keep asking myself: What if something happens? There’s no one who’s going to step in and take over. I’ve got- we’ve got no choice but to knuckle-down and get through it. But I’ll try and relax.”
Larry stood, setting the apple down on the log-seat. “I’ve known him for almost thirty years. He’s a good man, a good father, and best of all, he’s always got one ear to the ground. If Verns says he’s heard whispers, then…” Larry trailed off and looked up at me, patiently waiting for me to continue. When I didn’t, or perhaps taking in the spike of anxiety the old mechanic’s words had provoked, he at last conceded: “Well, it could be nothing. Either way, you’ve done all you can to prepare,” he waved a hand at our surroundings. “Besides. You had school. You can’t drop out. What’ll you do when school starts again? This impromptu summer vacation won’t last forever. Eventually they’ll start expecting you to attend.” Great. He’d just given me something else to think about, and not exactly helped alleviate the strange guilt I felt over taking an afternoon to ‘be like a normal kid.’ Maybe there was a reason most successful revolutions weren’t led by teenagers.
“There’s so much going on. I thought with more time, I’d have the ability to run everything. Perhaps, if we win the election, if we start gaining concessions, I can start delegating more. Put Verns in charge of the politicians’ concession demands from the Shil’vati, for example. Get a local commander for the expeditionary forces- the last thing they need is someone barking orders from the other side of the border. There’s a few cells that have proven themselves loyal and capable. We can start tapping them for more leadership opportunities.”
“That sounds wise,” he said. “You’ve been doing a good job and all, but you need to sleep, after all, and the bigger it grows, the more you’ll need to start trusting other people on decisions again. How are the new cells looking? I hear we’ve got lots of new people: Are we training them with good OpSec? I can step in on that right away, if you think it would help.”
“That would be appreciated,” I agreed, a bit relieved already just to know the offer of help was even there. “Vendetta’s got the list, but he makes it sound like there are hundreds of them. He doesn’t have the mobility to see them all. There’s also the fact that if they’re sting operations, then he’s taking a risk just meeting with them. They might notice how he arrives, how he leaves, might assign a tail.”
We took a moment to both listen to a woodpecker deep in the forest, and our masks looked at one another, both of us sharing a moment’s appreciation for the world around us before he offered his response. “Those lawyers are doing great work getting people off their charges. If we lose him…” Larry seemed to weigh his next words carefully. “...well, I know he’s your friend, but there are others to delegate to, you know. Ones I’d consider to be less…contentious.”
“I trust Vendetta to do what has to be done,” I countered. “I understand he’s a loose cannon, but I don’t know if there’s anyone else who could have done what he’s done for us. I prefer to use him in high-risk situations like these.”
“Where losing him in an arrest would be less devastating to our operations?” He asked, dubiously, as if begging me to reconsider. “He’s, you know, in the inner circle. You may have consigned half your life to the dustbin, but…you shouldn’t. I hear that Myrrah lady bit the dust. And you aren’t sleeping here, you say, so…I take it there’s been a new lease on life as Elias. Don’t sign it away on his back.”
“I see your point,” I said slowly. “The problem is, though, if the Shil’vati make a big show out of the arrests and we start losing people to arrests and raids, then no one will trust that we can assure their safety if they join us. I know there’s an inherent danger to this kind of thing. And while I don’t want cowards and power-hungry opportunists in our ranks, if people think we can’t even protect our own from having their doors knocked on, then we’re finished. All those fence-sitters who might jump would never come over to our side. That will slow us down from our goals. It’ll take another string of big wins to win them back over into even considering joining.”
“I don’t like admitting it, but most of the recruits are new to being soldiers. I can’t throw a war for the survival of our culture and tell them hey, if you join us, this is what will happen to you, but here are the stakes. They’ll just be miserable and scared, especially if it looks like the Shil’vati can just find them at any time.”
“Do you remember how I told you in the van, when we got ice cream, that a revolution won’t succeed off a bunch of martyrs no one could associate with? With no incentive, we’ll just look like a bunch of dreamers. Which I appreciate, that kind of…” he trailed off, for once mincing his words, much to my chagrin. “...youthful idealism has its place, but I also understand that the temptation of ‘retire today, kidnap an unarmored marine at gunpoint’ has been a compelling factor in recruitment, especially after what we got paid for Myrrah’s release was made public.”
“I don’t mind a financial incentive structure, provided they know they get it by facing risks. What worries me are the people who just want to cozy up and will sell us out the moment things get tough.”
“With training and discipline, plus a few ‘easy’ first strikes, we can turn even the biggest coward into reliable soldiers. Just give them time and be patient, boy. A concern is- what is smart about having a bunch of stressed out people away from home, around a lot of guns and noble hostages?” He jerked his thumb over to the shed.
I didn’t bother to correct him about that. At least the latest ‘oddball prototypes’ for field testing were being stored over at the new Warehouse Base. Some of the pieces of tech were too advanced for us to manufacture for now, and far from subtle. But we apparently had the skill to assemble them, at least.
“Maybe we mix in people who do have a choice with those unfortunate enough to have been potentially compromised. Say, Grouper and a few others, split by numbers to keep them calm. After all, if they spark a panic, I’m sure the Shil’ would notice. And then what? I don’t want to kick off Plan C by accident.”
“Plan C?” He stared. “I’ve heard that tossed around a few times. What is it?”
“Contingency. It’s never meant to be ‘Plan A,’ let’s put it that way. It’s meant to hand the Shil’vati something they’ve never had before. I’m just not sure we can deliver.”
I found myself staring at the trees around the camp. There was something odd about them…
“Can I see the hatchet?” I asked.
“Why? Can’t light a fire in the woods without attracting attention. Very unwelcome attention.”
“Just testing something. I’ve got a feeling.” I strode down to the tree, careful to avoid the traps. The trunk was massive- thicker than even an oak. I couldn’t remember seeing one so large when first we’d come here.
“Son, the Vietnamese didn’t win many standing engagements. Nor did the Iraqi army. What made them so costly to occupy wasn’t anything to do with standing fights and uniforms or discipline. When they tried to take standing fights, it always ended badly for them. Just- have you seen what their ground-attack craft can do?”
“I’m familiar. About a mile over there-” I pointed over the bluff toward the city. “That’s where I nearly died with Vendetta, running from where we first tried bombing one of their armored vehicles. They’d called in an airstrike.”
Then I took a swing into the trunk- and the Hatchet didn’t even manage to break the bark well, which itself had a thickness to it, too. Strange. I swung that pretty hard. I examined the edge, then tested it against my thumbnail. Definitely sharp.
“No shit?” He asked, looking over to where I’d pointed.
“Yep. I genuinely don’t want to deal with those. I’ve got some plans, but I’m not sure they’d work, and certainly not if they’re a bunch of people prone to panicking.” I scratched at my scalp, and realized that aside from the distant sentries, it was just G-Man, Larry and I here. So I walked back until I was atop the innermost earthen wall, and I hopped over the trench to talk with Larry face-to-face.
“I’m trusting you’re not putting your faith in God they won’t just bomb this place flat upon discovery for no good reason.”
I shook my head, and walked back to the bomb-making cabin. It, too, was empty of people, though packed with explosives we had yet to distribute. I turned and took my mask off- and Larry hesitantly did the same, offering me a hesitant smile.
I did my best to return it. “Religion and I don’t seem to get on well.” Besides, as even the devout brothers I once knew had often told me: ‘He has never helped the lazy.’” I couldn’t skimp on contingencies. But I also couldn’t obsess over them without being consumed over the endless possibilities.
“Boy, I asked you about what we were up to. I’m in this ‘inner circle,’ and I think I deserve to know what Plan C is. If only to help you see it through. I hope you meant what you said about delegation. You know you can trust me,” he almost sounded hurt to not have been involved.
I took in a deep breath, and then let it out slowly, remembering how he’d talked me out of Operation Martyr. Perhaps he was right- and Vaughn as my principal co-planner and confidant for this wasn’t for the best.
“You’re right. It’s time I told you everything. The plan is simple enough. It’s my hope that a diplomatic resolution can be found for the current hostilities here, so we can focus on starting them elsewhere. And I know they’ll take my offer. We’ll force them to the bargaining table. They’ll be put in a double-bind, and I’m pretty sure I know which way they’ll come down on the matter, because they’re terrified of the truth.”
“Pretty sure?”
“I did say it’s Plan C. If you’re using Plan C, it means you ran out of good options.”
Alright, fine. But what’s this ‘truth’?” Larry sounded skeptical.
“That they are terrified of actually escalating us to the same level of importance as even their lowest Shil’vati citizen, Larry. That we are just as important as they are, and they fear admitting we are just as capable. They still aren’t admitting that we are their true equals. Sure, they’ll readily tell everyone we are, they’ll call us ‘Citizen,’ and they do all the little things for us, hand us scraps, but it’s ‘gratismut’ or ‘free courage.’ It costs them nothing to say these things. Yet, if they’ll admit killing us is a higher priority than saving their own kind, even their noblewomen, then that means they mean it, and we will have won a victory that will be felt throughout the galaxy. What would it mean, if they confess to seeing us that way?”
He looked me in the eyes, searching for something I hoped was there.
“It means that our failures on this planet were the same they might have made. It means that all our combined sins throughout history, whatever our culture’s blind spots or shortcomings, our species’, does not make us inferior to them in any way. It means we had no less a right to an existence and self-governorship than they did as they grew as a civilization. It means that we are dangerous, and what’s more, capable when self-led, which to their traditionally militarized society means functionally the same thing. So then in their eyes, this invasion becomes a war of conquest unmasked, rather than the impression they like to give, that of a caretaker’s kindly and merciful imposition. It stops them looking like they’ve been correcting the self-destructive behavior of a mentally infirm species on the brink. It means that when they slaughtered our kind in the invasion, that it was not ‘justified’ nor a ‘pruning,’ and that it was in fact a needless massacre. It means that they could have come in peace to us as equals, that we could have been dealt with fairly, and that we probably even could have led ourselves just fine, and that eventually we might’ve even caught up to them, if we had more time to develop technologically.” I could see him wrangling with it, so I put a hand on his shoulder, and looked the man I considered my dad in the eyes. “It means that your nephew was not a fool to oppose them, but a man who died for his right to be free, to not kneel before conquerors without a fight. People all around the galaxy will see this, and they will understand it, forever.”
I saw his eyes do something I’d never seen, and he wiped at them with a calloused finger bitten into by countless hours of labor.
“Boy… you don’t know what that means, I didn’t know-” he whispered, and trailed off, eyes distant. “That is… you do understand. Yes. Yes, Emperor. I am with you in this. All the way. If you want me here, to watch whoever you send up, then I’ll do it. You want me to train them, I’ll do that.”
“They will accept the bargain,” I said. “They must accept it. Or else their empire will die.”
“So, that’s the plan?”
“That’s the plan. For now. We still have to grow. We still have so much more to accomplish.”
“I’m with you.” He said resolutely. “All the way.”
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First Chapter of Alien-Nation Previous Chapter
Alien-Nation Discord
Buy Me A Coffee for the Author

Eina broke through the surface of the water, barely able see for the mist clogging up her mask and the wide pitch-black cavern gaping in front of her, dimly lit by their headtorches. After a handful of futile attempts to wipe down her goggles, she ripped it off and clipped the damned thing onto her belt. Good timing too, considering the razor tentacle whipping out of the water towards her jugular. She threw herself aside, grazing her elbow on the cave wall and giving what she hoped would come across as a warning shout but likely was more of a frightened yelp.
Her squad leaped into action, Rum throwing a patronising arm over her shoulder and forcing her into a sprint. Marrow let loose a handful of blind blaster shots into the darkness.
“While I would rather you be fish food than me, Marrow, I suggest less shooting and more running,” Kystagg said with a grimace, already pulling ahead of the pack.
Eina did not dare spare a glance back to see what was chasing the four of them, she’d have plenty of time to do that later when she was digesting inside its stomach if she got caught. Or stomachs…
That cheery thought was chased by a snap at her squadmate, “Kystagg, would you be a dear and get those fucking lights on?”.
She answered by the furious but futile flicking of a switch. Darkness remained.
Eina pressed forward, blindly willing herself forward. Engulfing darkness, scrambling blind against a cave wall, hyperventilating over comms and some giant fuck-off monster at their heels. Not quite what she had in mind when she signed up to become a bounty-hunter but life was full of little surprises. Rarely good ones, in her experience.
The scrape of chitin on rock some way overhead alerted her to the fact that a) the whatever-the-fuck was closing on them and b) the cavern had gotten bigger. Eina broke her attention from the tiny spot of light illuminated in front of her and couldn’t help sparing a glance into the darkness, though it was as useless as she had anticipated. She turned back only to launch herself out of the path of a sweeping tentacle. Her torchlight rested on it just long enough to illuminate the glass-like armour, a hint of what looked like engravings or hieroglyphs scrawled onto the flesh beneath the crystal. They were in the right place then.
A throaty howl echoed from in front and Eina had trouble telling whether it was Kystagg or whatever scrabble of winged creatures that had descended upon her. A clatter. She had dropped it. Shit.
Marrow let out a long string of rare and exotic curses as he swiveled tried the age old tactic of spraying uselessly into the darkness again. Miraculously, it had the same effect as before. Jack shit.
Eina swung her headtorch around wildly, praying that she could see the lightswitch ahead of her but not daring to drop the pace. Scrambling blindly into the darkness, the hands of her wetsuit grasped at loose stone as she felt her way forward. Something slimed into her grip and she suppressed the urge to scream. She’d missed the switch. Hadn’t she?
There. A brief glance to her side and her headtorch light glinted from a small metal ball.
Guess it was all down to her again, but that was hardly anything new. She threw herself off the wall and rolled laterally onto the lightswitch, snatching it into her grip.
A growl emanated from the blackness behind her and she felt the air crunch as a tentacle missed her by an inch. Giving the silver ball a shake and damning the thing to every hell she could think of she pressed it.
The cavern burst into a brilliant golden glow, bathing ancient rose walls, littered with carvings, melting with time. Hieroglyphs matching the one scratched into the creature’s flesh adorned every wall. Dark openings lined every level of rock, the ancient city still watching out on the action below. Had it not been for the present circumstances, even Eina might have been impressed. The creature thrashed around temporarily blinded, launching out an array of untargeted attacks. Eina did not wait about for it to regain its senses and renewed her effort to catch up with the rest of the group.
Crack. Something latched itself around Eina’s ankle. The world fell beneath her as she crunched onto the tiled cave floor. She was tugged back agonizingly quickly, but she had enough wherewithal to whip her machete from its guard and hack into flesh. It took a couple of swings to free herself from the diamond incrusted whip, but it broke with a moan.
Eina wheeled round to face the beast and immediately wished she hadn’t. In the light, the creature did not look to dissimilar to a slug, if said slug was as big as a small spacecraft; was suspended by an uncountable number of crystalline crab-like legs; and was swaddled in a mass of mucus-dripping tentacles that occasionally lashed out violently from its crystalline chassis. The markings on its pale white skin had become all the more clearer in the artificial light, identical to the script that plastered every stone and statue in the cavern. Another defining characteristic which differentiated the beast from a garden-variety slug was the unclosing, gaping maw lined with a ring of eyeballs and brimming with rows upon rows of small teeth and Fizzments, various previous meals in various states of digestion and decomposition still clinging around its throat. Charming.
A small opening jutted out from beneath a particularly peeved looking old king with half an arm lying it his feet. “Over there”, Marrow said, redundantly, but the party had already began to bolt for the hole. The scraping of glass legs on the cave floor and a loud crash behind her made her all too aware that the beast had regained its senses.
From some way ahead, Kystagg was as witty as ever, “Are you done seeing the sights now Eina, or would you like us to wait for you in the shuttle?”
Eina ducked beneath another jagged glass tip of the tentacles, “You know, I think I’ve had my share of excitement for a day. Let’s get what we came for and get out of here”. She considered taking a few more pot shots at the thing now that it was in the light but had no idea where she had to shoot it to make it bleed and thought better of it.
As Eina burst through the opening and into the darkness, Rum let out an audible sigh, “You’re still focused on picking up that tech even if it means you’re lunch?”
Eina was suddenly serious, “Not one of you is leaving this shit-hole planet until I get it, understand?” she said roughly. Eina pretended she didn’t hear Rum’s muttered response and began to push on into the cave system, the wide street now substituted for a suffocating cavern. Even Eina had to crook her neck to avoid the ceiling, Rum was practically on all fours at points.
The adrenaline had abandoned Eina and left her with an oppressive, muggy air baking down on her and a desparation for a fresh breeze. Most of the squad had set aside their masks and zipped down their wetsuits, with the exception of Rum, who was as buttoned up as ever. No one felt much like talking, let alone trying to lighten the mood after that snide remark. Great job leading the team, Captain.
Venus trotted alongside her, wearing a summer dress and loose hanging blonde hair. “Well I for one believe in you captain”, her eyes twinkled even in the low light as she performed a mock salute with the grace and poise of a practiced militiawoman. Hearing voices and seeing ghosts now Eina. Always a good sign of a well adjusted individual, capable of leading a team.
Eina noticed Kystagg glance down at the radar on her wrist for the first time since entering these caves.
“We’re well off course, captain, but there should still be a route through that can get us to the bounty and through the ancient waterworks to avoid… whatever the hell that thing was, if these old maps are anything to go by,”
“The precursors were not exactly ones to skimp on details,” Rum said, “if the cave is intact then the map is correct,”
The party came to an abrupt halt as Marrow let out a sigh, “Funny story on that one chief,”
“Shite. Path to the tech is blocked, the only route forward takes us straight into the waterworks. There’ll be no way from there but open ocean.” Kystagg muttered.
Eina kicked a rock and immediately regretted it. She slumped down and thought.
Marrow started to placate her but Rum knew better than to try, “I don’t see any other option, we can’t go backwards. We still have a nice haul of artefacts we can sling from the dive down…”
“We go back,” Eina said.
Every other member of the team had various methods of expressing their disapproval. Kystagg shouted a few choice words; Marrow looked on the verge of tears and Rum just shook his head.
“We go back. Marrow and I will take on the beast while the two of you plant charges at the waterworks. After that we just have to survive the flood, make our way to the emptied waterworks and we’re out and a million marks richer each.”
“You’ll bring the whole place down on us, you mad bitch,” Marrow started, incredulously before catching Rum’s overprotective glare. She always hated when he did that.
“A controlled charge should break down enough of the barriers without compromising the integrity of the structure.”
“You’ll destroy countless ancient monuments, some of this city has been standing for thousands of years,” Rum said, rubbing his forehead in exasperation.
“Cry about it to your brimming bank account when we bring back this tech to the mob. Or to your broken knee caps and missing teeth if we return empty handed. We go back.”
“I can’t let you go. I should be the one to…” Kystagg began before realising the answer to her own comment and thinking better of it. “What I mean to say is, good luck captain”.

My friend who helped me set up this account has repeatedly asked me to post this story since I mentioned in my HOA post about how my parents hated me and only loved my sister. So I may as well tell it.
I was born when my mother and father were only 17. It forced my both of my parents to drop out of high school and each get a G.E.D. so they could find work right away. My father especially was not happy about this because he had dreams of playing football in college, and instead he had to work at a gas station. He said to my face many times that I ruined his dream. My mother hardly raised me at all as she had to work too. They had a cranky old lady next door watch me most of the time. She wasn't so bad. She gave me more attention than my parents did. My father eventually managed to land a better job as a manager due to his experience running the gas station. It was right after that my mom got pregnant with my sister. I was six when she was born. I wasn't exactly shown much love before that. But once my sister came along, it was made pretty obvious to even my six year old self that I was unwanted. The only ones who seemed to care were my paternal grandparents and somewhat my babysitter. And they were more like my parents because they treated me the way a little kid needed to be loved.
We lived in a two bedroom apartment. And as my sister got older, it went from me sharing a bedroom with her, to me kicked out of the room entirely. I slept on the couch for two years. And I barely had anything to my name other than clothes, school supplies and an old Gameboy. When I was ten, my parents decided they were gonna move away. But this move did not include me. I ended up actually being fine with this, as my grandparents had agreed to take me in. My life was instantly better. I got my own room again, and my grandparents gifted me a brand new N64 in 1996. That Christmas I got a Gameboy Pocket too. And there were a couple of other kids my age in the neighborhood I got to hang out with. We rode bikes, played video games, shot cans with pellet guns, built forts, and got dirty playing in the creek. You know, stuff a normal kid would enjoy. I was finally happy.
As time went on, I grew up and eventually moved out. But later moved back in to help my grand parents house as they were getting old and living off their retirement savings. So some rent money from me went a long way in paying the bills. My grandpa was the kind of person who'd wanted to build a bomb shelter during the cold war. But never got around to it. He wanted to volunteer for the military in the 60s, but was turned down due to a medical condition and the fact his eyesight was not great. So he focused on saving whatever he thought he needed. He told me many times it was better to have something and not need it, than need it and not have it. Our area suffered from numerous power outages in winter due to heavy winds and storms. So having gasoline and propane for heaters and generators was a must. All these saving habits became my own as time went on. Because it was better to need this stuff rarely, than not have it at all.
Of course there was the HOA bothering us. But that's it's own other story. The problem is, about five years back my grandma died suddenly. And my grandpa was heartbroken. He also went about a year and a half later. Pretty much everything they owned was willed to me. Their savings, their house, their vehicles, their stuff, EVERYTHING! The house was long paid off, and grandpa knew how to keep up with it's maintenance. In fact, after grandma died he kind of doubled down on renovating the place. He had the roof redone, the house was repainted by us inside and out, and we fixed a lot of little things. Grandpa's neighbor George even came by to help redo the plumbing. Ironically the HOA was rather happy with these changes, because the house didn't look rundown anymore. One morning I was fixing breakfast and my grandpa never came downstairs. You couldn't keep the man from his bacon. So I went to check on him. And he wasn't moving. I called 911 and paramedics came. Only to tell me he'd passed in his sleep.
My parents made grandpa's funeral a shit show. They didn't bother to show up for grandma's. They were too busy. And at grandpa's funeral they didn't seem to grieve at all. My sister also showed up wearing a brightly colored designer dress. Which I wasn't happy about as it was a church clothes only function. I noticed my parents repeatedly whispering to each other and glaring at me whenever I looked at them. Come to find out at the will reading that my parents knew that they'd been disinherited long ago for their treatment of me. And they thought it extremely unfair I got everything. They threatened to sue me to contest the will. And I got repeated calls and messages from my father, mother and sister telling me I needed to do the right thing and give my father what was supposed to be his. I told them all to flake off in far more unsavory words.
My parents ended up taking me to court to challenge the will. But the judge ruled in my favor after seeing the will and hearing us both out. So it wasn't a long drawn out legal battle. The judge even looked at my parents with absolute disgust after seeing the will and hearing about their mistreatment of me in my childhood. He called my father a terrible parent, and that my grandparents were right to disown him. My father just hung his head in silence, but he made sure to stop me outside the courtroom and tell me I was always the biggest mistake of his life. And that if he could go back in time, he'd make sure I never existed. He should have been a football star. And instead he has to wear a nametag for a 9 to 5. I told him that mistake or not, Grandma and grandpa could see what kind of nasty person he was. I didn't ask to be born. And the only real love I ever got was from my grandparents. And he was no father of mine anymore.
I got a few more threatening and harassing phone calls, as well as some letters from my parents. All demanding money among other things. But over time they just stopped because I completely stonewalled them. Never responded to the emails or letters, and I stayed silent during the phone calls. A few times I just left the phone sitting on the counter with them ranting till they realized I wasn't listening. Aside from not getting the house or money, my parents seemed particularly irked they could not even get a rise out of me. But I was prepared to go to war against them. And they knew it. So in the end they just left me alone. From what I know looking at face-book the past decade, my sister tried to get into modeling, got married, had two kids, got divorced, and is currently unhappily working a job she feels is beneath her. My mother currently works retail, and is also vocal about her disdain of it. Like my father, she peaked in high school. She was a cheerleader back then, and even had her old uniform framed on the wall. My father has pretty much had the same job for 25 years. He must be good at it if he's still doing it.
As for me. Well I'm in my late 30s now. And I live pretty much debt free in a nice neighborhood. I haven't really had a girlfriend since highschool. And I've had little motivation to ever have another relationship. But loneliness gets to everyone. So maybe I'll try to find someone soon. Not many are in the financial position I'm in at my age. Single, paid off house, two vehicles, and a decent amount in the bank. I guess I could aim to be a stepfather. That might be more my speed.

Residential Contracting 101
With over 20 years of building experience, I would like to share with you my insights in navigating becoming a successful contractor. With many different avenues of the building world its key to understand what problems will arise on any given day. A man once told a saying that stuck-the 6 p’s in life- Piss Poor Preparation leads to Piss Poor Performance. Preparation builds everything in construction, without preparation the jobsite will not run correctly. The best advice I was ever given was to learn a little about every trade giving you the ability to understand trade lingo and secrets. An example would be painters use the terminology flash; this means when the sub structure bleads through the paint. Subcontractors will give the best pricing if they respect your knowledge of the industry. If the subcontractor feels they will have to hold your hand through the job they will charge an extra fee…i.e. I call it the aggravation fee. In this blog I will explain the key elements in finding success in all aspects of the industry. Contracting is a physically and emotionally demanding job which requires planning and foresight to complete projects on time within budget. Picking your customer is just as important as picking your employees or subcontractors. I have worked for some of the most demanding customers leading me to question at the end if the job was even worth it. Sleepless nights, constant changes, lack of payment, lawsuit threats, adding work that was in the contract are just a few things you could face with a tough customer. With so many moving parts at all times it is critical to be able to adapt to changes within a short time frame. Materials will come in damaged, subcontractors will be late, employees will get sick, but the deadline you set does not change. The stress can be overwhelming at times keeping your mind in a good place is key to navigating all that is thrown at you. Choosing your client picking the right jobs-Keep these questions in mind The first question to be asked is what the time frame is to start the job to see if it fits within the timeframe for your business. If the time frame doesn’t work then move on from the project or let them know when you would be available to start. If the client really wants to use, they will wait until you are available. Taking on too much work will only lead to problems. Construction is a serviced based business, staying on top of the project and client will eliminate an unhappy customer and construction issues that will be over seen. With online presence if details are missed and customer service lacks it will only be a matter of time the phone will not ring. The second question to be asked to the client is do they have a budget in mind for the project. If they answer yes this is good, follow through with what the budget is. If the budget seems low let them know, this will eliminate a tire kicker, educate them on what the price range could be. If the budget seems reasonable then continue the discussion to the next question. If they answer no let them know that you can give them an estimate to see if the project is feasible with their finical capabilities. Taking on a job that is not correctly budgeted will lead to an unsatisfied customer due to non-transparency of the construction cost. The third question to be asked is anyone else bidding on the job, if the answer is yes, understand you might just be number check for the contractor doing the job. Dig a little deeper and find out how many numbers they are getting and why. If your business model is to be competitive be completely transparent with customer, this will gain trust with them. Let them know you get what you pay for and if you they choose the lowest bid it could lead into lack of quality of work.
The fourth question I will ask is there any specific subcontractors they wanted to use. If the answer is yes then I would explain to them you only use the subcontractors you have a working relationship with. Otherwise, this could backfire as the subcontractor might not show, do subpar work, talk behind your back to the homeowner. In my experience I would stay away from using any homeowner to alleviate problems down the road. A quick conversation now can save headaches down the road. The fifth question I will ask are planning on getting the job permitted, this needs to be known it takes more time for the permitting process. Plans will have to drawn submitted and approved to the city before work can commence. The sixth question I will ask if a residential remodel is are you going to be living through the remodel if yes understand this will take more time to navigate the project due to answering questions and cleaning the house on a daily occurrence. I would recommend seeing if the customer would be willing to move into an Airbnb or friends for at least the demo portion of the project. If they do plan on living through the remodel add a couple hours a day to accommodate the extra time that will be required. The seventh question I would ask in a residential remodel is how old the house is to see if there is asbestos that would need to removed by a proper company. A home built before 1979 will most likely have some asbestos in the house, use a licensed company with proper insurance to dispose of the materials. If everything looks good to this point find out a little more about the client personality. If the client seems reasonable, I would bid the job. Unreasonable people can cause you more stress than its worth. These are some red flags I would look out for. Some jobs are not worth the money. Very demanding in the way you are going to perform your job- I.e., tell you how you are going to do your job- You’re the professional not them! Give you a hard time about your price- haggle with price you estimated- The price is the price! If they are a family with little money and you want to help them out is one thing, if they are trying to beat you down is another. Mention they have a lawyer-there is no need for them to bring up that they have a lawyer - Run for the hills as if the job goes south, you will be the one losing out! Tell you what the payment terms are. It’s your business you get paid how it works for your company. If you want to get paid every Friday, put it into your contract-If the clients do not agree move on it will save you frustrations If they talk bad about the last contractor, chances are they will talk bad about you. There is a reason why the contractor does not work for them anymore, unless he did subpar work this a red flag Clients are using an interior decorator that will purchasing all of the materials- The materials could be ordered incorrectly by the interior designer your company will not make the mark-up it deserves. Interior decorators usually add time to the job as well as act like your boss. Charging a little extra for the time and stress that it will entail is only fair. Clients want to purchase the materials- You are using your knowledge to buy the correct materials-The mark up on the materials keeps the doors open working for wages only pays the bills The husband and wife do not get along-You will become the mediator between the couple it will lead to taking sides a losing proposition- A drama free work place is always best! Dangling carrot-if you do this job the next one will be better-Only look at what there offering at the present moment, if its not a good fit do not take the job for a job down the road…Its not worth chasing a job that might not happen! The Art of the Sale First things first selling your company is all about presentation. In meeting your clients for the first time show up with a collared golf shirt tucked in, belt, nice jeans, and newer shoes. Have a truck that a clean, no dents scratches, preferably washed the day you are going into your meeting. Have a leather note pad that is clean no dirt or paint visible. Show up 5 minutes early, if you’re running a little late shoot them a text to let them know. Treat the situation as if were going on a first date, best foot forward. As you introduce yourself give them a warm greeting, letting them know you are very interested in the work. Find out a little about them, hobbies, where they lived, etc etc. You are going to be working with them on a daily basis its nice to know what makes them tick. Having a good working relationship from the start is key forming a solid relationship. As the conversation progresses find out who wears the pants in the family…ie who’s the final decision maker. If its fits the wife, chances it is…..then kindly let the husband know happy wife happy life when their in a stall mate on an issue. As your looking at the project throw in some suggestions of what you think would look good from past experiences, this will get their attention that you have knowledge and want what’s best for them. If you see ways to save them money in their project let them know, money is a large point of the sale keep that in mind. Mention that you’re not the least expensive contractor but you’re not the most expensive either. Your customer satisfaction is your number one goal which leads to more time spent on keeping them happy. One happy customer will lead to another, one unsatisfied customer leads to work in the future. Bring up the fact the finishing the job on time is key goal to your business, many contractors run several jobs at once causing the jobs to be finished way behind schedule. You must stand out as having integrity, good morals, and the ability to problem solve to get the job. The clients will be testing you to see if you’re a good fit as well. Keep in mind as you take your notes that you must not forget anything they mention as it will come back before the job is completed…i.e. we mentioned that to you before we started the job! Take pictures of the proposed area for work, that way you can use it to better right your estimate. Let them know you will give them a detailed outline of when the job will be completed letting them see how long each phase will take and correlate it with your payment schedule. Before you leave their house let them know when the estimate will be sent to them. MAKE SURE YOU HIT THAT DEADLINE! Once you sent the email over with estimate make sure you get confirmation that they received it. Wait at least 2 days before checking with them, hopefully they contact you first! If they want negotiate the price, let them know that it is the best price that you can manage, its not worth losing money before you start. I closed 80% of the work I estimated by being very transparent and friendly. If you come off with an attitude charge double what the going rates are you might only land 1 out of 10 jobs as well as getting the reputation of being expensive. Bidding the job Looking up industry standards on pricing is what I would go buy for pricing. If you google the coat of any installation there will be a cost range for everything. Looking at the cost ranging from high to low I would tend to be in the middle. Some items might be low on the internet if this is the case use your best judgment not to lose money. Closing sales is key to success and keep the doors open for business. Being in the middle on pricing is key as most customers shy away from contractors that are extremely low or high on the price range. I tend not bid out hourly as wages do not pay for retirement. Bidding is better as customers no the exact price of the cost of construction. It also keeps the job moving quicker as time and material contractors take longer to complete projects…Thus costing the client more money and valuable time they could spend in their house. Using a Contract Using a detailed estimate tied to a contract covers your butt in 99% of the time. Having a piece of mind that every aspect of the job is covered in the estimate and contract protects both your company and the client. Key terms to include in your estimate/contract are. Have a schedule on excel showing the start dates and dates of each trade this will show the customer you are organized with time lines. If not written in the detailed in the estimate the item is excluded- This ensures if its not written down its not included. TBD- To be Determined- A phrase on a line item that has yet to had final decision of products or service needed. -The pricing will follow the decisions to be finalized Give out what your written warranty will be for parts and labor this changes state to state. If the homeowner provides the product than no warranty will be given on that particular item. In the contract have a start date and end date with the verbiage subject to change due to weather, product delivery, change orders Have a progress payment schedule to ensure the client understands when funding will be expected-Including if not payment is rendered service to the project will stop. Have written terms of how change orders will be charged-cost plus 20% or a set fee Make sure in your contract that arbitration is required versus going to court- This will save lawyer fees and going to court Many contracts can be found online and each state requires different contracts
Finding leads Finding leads is easy with the right network of people. I personally do not find working for friends or family members a good fit. Relationships get strained when money is involved, causing undue stress for both parties. I have listed a couple of ways to build a network or find work using the internet. Get in contact with realtor’s- Realtors have a big client base of homeowners who need work done Contact local Architects to see if they are working with any general contractors Leave some business cards at your local materials suppliers-Doowindow/lumber-many times clients will ask salesman for a referral. Join a business networking group- BNI is one of many Join a internet website lead generation company- Houzz, Angie’s List, Home Advisor, thumbtack, Yelp run an ad on craigslist Use a marketing company to market your website-This could become costly with little results Create a Facebook business page Create a Yelp business page
Building your subcontractor base Having 2 subcontractors for every trade, gives you the flexibility of completing jobs on time if the one the subcontractors is too busy at the time you need their service. Your subcontractors are the face of your business, choose owner run companies that are professional. Check to make sure there license are up to date..ie workman’s comp, liability insurance, state license. Choosing subcontractors with lettered vans, logoed t-shirts is s key to looking professional in the clients’ eyes. In the past I have gotten a lot of subcontractors for material supply shops, stopping by jobsites, researching the internet using Yelp, Home Advisor, etc etc. Once you get one good subcontractor ask them if they know any other trades they would recommend. One good subcontractor leads to another in most cases. The key to having a good group of subcontractors is to let them know that you are there to get help them get the job done. They do work for you but without them you are nothing…keep that in mind! Make them aware a clean jobsite is required at the end of everyday to ensure the proper safety for all parties including theirs! Over the years I have referred a lot of companies work when there is only 1 trade needed. Referring work to subcontractors is a good way to get top priority when you have work that needs to be completed ASAP. Timing is everything in times of emergency having a good group of subcontractors will make your business run smoothly. Pay your subcontractors immediately after performing work, this will make them feel appreciated! A happy subcontractor is one that will gladly go the extra mile for you knowing that there not just a number to your business! Buying lunch once a week for the jobsite is always a good token of appreciation!
Supervising In supervising any jobsite its key to monitor everything from materials on hand, weather, vehicle parking (if applicable), jobsite safety, and subcontractors’ workmanship. If you hired a professional there should be little supervision in the work being performed, on rare occasions a new hire might need some mentoring to get the results completed correctly. If you see a problem with there work address it with the worker directly, no need to call his boss…. building repour with the worker letting him know you got his back goes miles down the road! Checking in on the job first in the morning to answer any questions or changes that need to be conveyed and once in the afternoon to make sure all work be completed is done per construction industry standards. A job that is run blindly will have many more issues than one that is watched over. I have seen many jobs with no site supervision, leading to subpar quality work as well as safety hazards. Its better to be like an eagle than cluck like a turkey!
Working with the City/Inspectors On permitted jobs the city and site inspector will be a large part of how smoothly the job runs. Each phase of construction has an inspection allowing for the project to continue. Make sure your subcontractors are aware that the project is inspected before starting the job. The best way to stay on his good side is to provide a clean jobsite and having the job built to the highest standards possible. When having the site inspected be courteous to the inspector asking any questions or concerns you have with the work during the job. Being completely transparent will save you aggravation of problems down the road. The more he trust you the better if you seem sneaky or rude he will make your life a living nightmare! Many inspectors will have an attitude towards you….I suggest keeping quiet and doing what ever he wants….he’s the boss no need to get in a pissing match you will not win at. How to deal with irate customer Stay calm during any argument with an irate customer. Never raise your voice or show that you are bothered by their disgruntled behavior. If the customer is trying to get more from you than agreed upon stand your ground. Worst case scenario is you walk from the job, which in the long run be more of a loss for the client. I have only run into a couple of these clients; they are unreasonable and not worth losing sleep over a few dollars. Its best to terminate the relationship as it would be my best guess that a referral from this customer would not be one you wanted anyway. If you feel it was just a miscommunication on your end, take reasonability and remedy the problem. Taking accountability for your mistake will go a far way in their eyes and on future issues that arise. Prepping the homeowner pre-construction Before starting the job, it very important to give the homeowners a warning of what will happen during the construction process.

1. All furniture in the proposed working area must be moved- I would recommend having the clients take care of this to limit the risk of damage to their belongings.
2. There will be dust that will be in the house up to 3 months after construction-I would recommend hiring a construction cleaning company at the end of the job even so after it is cleaned dust will be present months after words.
3. There will be conflicts between you in the homeowner at some course of the job. - You will do your best to eliminate them as quickly as they arise-i.e. material damages, miscommunication, job delays
4. All decisions on materials must be made before the start of the job- this will eliminate job stoppage due to materials not being on site.
5. All materials will be on site before commencement of job-
6. Payment structures must be made per contract otherwise job will stop until payment rendered
7. Cars are to be moved out of the driveway- Ensures ease of loading and unloading of materials/tools
8. Give the specific hours that workers will be present- i.e. 7-3:30
9. Determine what areas are allowed to be used as staging for tools/materials
10. If animals are present in the home that they put outside or in a room during the day
11. All valuables in the house are locked in safe
12. Ask if using client’s household bathroom is okay or to bring in Porter Potty
13. Being transparent as possible is key to keeping a great relationship with your client!

During Construction During construction it is key to take detailed photos to eliminate any damages that were not caused by the construction process. I would also make a video to ensure all areas are included. All subcontractors should also take progress pictures to ensure if problems arise in the future, they will not be responsible for any work that they did not perform. Keep an on-going log of progress to the homeowners and share the pictures for there records. This will keep homeowners excited of the progress being made. When the house is gutted to the studs it is important to have construction photos showing where all utilities are run in the walls or sub floor. If there is a problem in the future there will photos showing all utility locations. Protect all flooring with plywood or floor protective. I also like to protect front door and tarp all areas where subcontractors are to be working. Make sure to cover any chandeliers/furniture/doorways with plastic to eliminate dust. Ask the homeowners if they have any concerns that they could think of. We’re all human and possibly a detail was missed! Post Construction Phase If the project went smoothly appreciation should be shown to the customer. Find out if the husband likes a particular type of liquor. Bring the wife a bouquet of flowers. Send a Christmas card to the family letting how much you appreciated the work. You know you have done a good job if they tell you they will refer you to their friends. The best compliment you could receive is a good referral. In Summary Try to find a knitch in the market, I found kitchens to be a great remodel projects. Bathrooms are tough as they are small, expensive with little profit margin with every trade involved. Windows/doors are also another great knitch as they can be installed quickly. There are so many different remodeling items that can be stream lined to make the selling installing process flawless. Once the core group subcontractors are in place the job almost runs itself. Every day is a learning experience with new materials or methods in construction. Keeping up with codes, materials, fluctuating labor and material cost is a job within itself. Anyone can be a contractor with the right mindset.

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

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S&P Sectors for this past week:

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Major Indices for this past week:

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Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

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Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

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Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

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DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

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April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

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Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

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Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

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The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

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Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

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While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

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The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

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Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

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Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

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Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

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Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

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Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

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Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

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Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

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Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

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A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

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DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

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April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

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Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

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A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)

Hey everyone! I'm back, this time with another Leader Guide, for Croatia, covering the Croatia submod by u/AdriaticTzar that was integrated into the mod. I have to thank him for not only creating it almost singlehandedly the first place but also making himself available for questions over the last couple weeks. I really could not have done it without him!
The Guide will be over a couple parts, owing to Reddit's limit on images and characters, but also the amount of content Croatia now has. Also because of the limits the slides might seem a little cramped or cluttered, but as always please let me know what you think. Questions, comments, and corrections are always welcome! If you'd like to see just the leaders, check out my updated Leader Tree here.
You can find many historic parallels to OTL which are noted throughout, but also take note of the cool Ending Event each path has. They are a great additions.
As Croatia is constantly being worked on, any changes that may come from future updates/patches will be updated here as well.
---

Starting Situation

Starting Situation
Starting Focus Trees
Econ./Mil./Tourism Trees Which Load AFTER the Uprising/Civil War Completes
Croatia is in a state of perpetual darkness, having been under the rule of the Ustaše for almost a decade. Led by Poglavnik (loosely translated as Chief) Ante Pavelić, the Ustaše, officially the Ustaša – Croatian Revolutionary Organization (UHRO), is ideologically a blend of Roman Catholicism, extreme Croat nationalism, and Fascism, whose goal of a Greater Croatia includes cleansing the country of religious and ethnic minorities (such as the Serbs, Jews, and Roma). The Ustaša are so ruthless and brutal, even Heinrich Himmler once remarked that the state was ‘ridiculous.’ Not included in their campaigns are the Bosnians who the Ustaše see as Muslim Croats, who live in an Autonomous Region in the center of the country. Economically, the Ustaša promotes a version of a planned economy called Croatian Socialism, which strives to create a non-Marxist Socialist system.
The Independent State of Croatia (NDH) was founded after the Axis invasion of Yugoslavia in 1941, and was set up as a condominium between Germany and Italy, splitting the country roughly in half along a line of demarcation. As such the economy of Croatia was tied to that of Germany and Italy, and with the economic stagnation in Germany, the economic collapse of Italy, and the high cost and toll of both cleansing the populace and hunting Partisans, the dawn of 1952 sees a Croatian economy in shambles. Pavelić and the Ustaša need to make major changes to keep Croatia afloat, and they might not necessarily be the ones to do it…
Homeguard/NDH Admin. UIs
Croatia is ruled over by Poglavnik Ante Pavelić, and is assisted by his Second-in-Command Andrija Artuković (widely seen as Pavelić’s successor). Artuković was responsible for enforcing the Racial Laws against the populace and so has been given the moniker the Architect of Terror. Along with Artuković, there is Jure Francetić, founder and leader of the 1st Standing Active Brigade, (originally known as the 1st Ustaša Regiment), nicknamed the ‘Black Legion’ after its use of black uniforms. Both he and the Legion are known for their fanatical loyalty to the Ustaša, and for brutality against the resistance. The last member of Pavelić’s inner circle is Mladen Lorković. Lorković is more moderate compared to the other members of the Ustaša in that he seeks to end the enforced Nazi policies, and reform the country along the lines of Italian Fascism. This is done behind the scenes, and with the help of Homeguard leader Ante Vokić, and Croatian Peasant Party (HSS) leader August Košutić.

• You can see The NDH Administration UI by clicking on the Croatian Coat of Arms, or šahovnica (chessboard), next to the Cabinet in the Country’s Political Tab.

Alongside the government, there is the Croatian Homeguard, the country’s military. It is led by Minister of Defence Ante Vokić. The Homeguard is currently divided, and its loyalty to the Ustaša is tenuous at best. Even Vokić is said to be conspiring with the Ustaša’s enemies, and will strike at the government if the Homeguard’s Influence is high while the Stability of the country is too low. But he will not move against Pavelić while he is still Poglavnik.

• If Stability is at zero or below and Influence is 50% or more, if Stability is below 30% or below and Influence is 60% or more, or if Stability is at 50% or below and Influence is 70% or more, Vokić will coup the government. This is checked every week.
• You can see The Croatian Homeguard UI by clicking on the Croatian Trefoil, next to the Cabinet in the Country’s Political Tab.

Pre-Uprisings

Pre-Uprisings
From game start, Croatia is trying to pull itself out of the economic hole created by Germany and Italy and regain some standing. To do that it will work to end German and Italian influence by abolishing the Demarcation Line, removing Italian garrisons in Italy’s zone, rebuilding its navy (whose size was limited by treaty on Italy’s order), giving the German concessions to leave, and removing SS units stationed in the German zone.
Concurrently, Croatia is still trying to rid itself of the Partisans, and with hopeful supplies from Germany, it will show no restraint. (The right side of the tree here has a few flavor events about the Ustaša attempt to stamp out dissent, told from the perspective of everyday people.) But Pavelić is not as safe as he thinks in Zagreb, and the Partisans will try for an assassination attempt. It will fail, but will only worsen the government’s pacification attempts.
Once the Demarcation Line has been abolished, and the pacification stepped up, internal matters can be taken care of: Purging the HSS, or uniting the Homeguard.

• For the last 10 years the HSS has been allowed to operate, and even holds an electoral alliance with the Ustaša in Parliament (Sabor). This can end, and Lorković’s ties with them outed and he tried for sedition. If put on trial, there will be a 60% chance he will be found guilty of undermining the state, and promptly executed. That also means there is a 40% chance he will be found not guilty by having the case against him dismissed… somehow. (At release, the percentages were 90 for not guilty, and 10 for guilty!)
• If the Homeguard are instead to be united, its members, mostly conscripts of different backgrounds and beliefs, will be educated in devotion to the Ustaša and Poglavnik. This will remove the ‘Divided Home Guard’ national spirit, and allow the training and editing of units.

With the internal issue dealt with, Croatia can look outward to Hungary-occupied Vojvodina. Wanting to unite all Croats beyond its border, Croatia can choose to initiate a border war to get it back.
Winning will see the state of Vojvodina being transferred over. Hungary will get the option to declare war to fight for it back. Croatia must keep the Hungarians at bay for 50 days and it will white peace. But, if Croatia manages to take Budapest, and get Hungary’s surrender rate over 50%, it will white peace and transfer the state of Prekmurje.
Losing the border war will see the state of Srem transferred to Hungary. Similar to Hungary, Croatia will get an option to declare war for the return of Srem, and will have the same peace conditions as if Hungary instigated the war.
A little over a week after the Border War was initiated or not, Partisans will conduct a brazen attack in the very heart of Zagreb at the Poglavnik’s Palace, with the intent of killing Pavelić. Their attack will be successful, but all involved will be killed by government reinforcement. Regardless, the decapitation of NDH leadership (not literally) will send Zagreb in chaos, and spur riots in Bosnian areas.

Chaos in Zagreb

Chaos in Zagreb
Before a new Poglavnik can be decided upon, the Supreme Ustaša Council will take over temporarily while a plan of action is drawn up. The Sabor, though only advisory, will be summoned and will pass measures to stamp out the little legal opposition left. Due to economic constraints, only one resistance group can be focused on, either:

• The Partisans
• The (Bosnian) Nationalists

Meanwhile, the inner-circle of the now deceased Pavelić, the three who have the best chance of being elected the new Poglavnik, will use the opportunity of the Sabor session to make their case and attack the other two. Each will raise his influence with the speech. Shortly thereafter the funeral arrangement will need to be tended too. Supporting Lorković’s plan of a small funeral will see his influence rise while Artuković’s and Francetić’s will fall. If the original plan of a grandiose funeral is approved, Artuković’s and Francetić’s influence will rise while Lorković’s will fall.

• If the Partisans were focused on and Serbia is Communist, the Generals will flee there and offer their services to the Serbian government. Their headquarters in Crikvenica will be destroyed.
• If it was the Bosnians, their autonomy will be revoked, and the leader of the Bosnian Autonomous Region, Mehmed Handžić, will be removed from office.

With one group decimated, an uneasy calm will fall across Zagreb. With the Ustaša Surveillance Service (UNS) working on leads on the other group, Zagreb will lose contact with units stationed around the county. Taking advantage of still existing, the Bosnians led by Handžić, or the Partisans led by Vladimir Bakarić will rise up against the government.

Uprising and/or Civil War

Uprising/Civil War Starting Situations
The Bosnians Uprising is treated like a revolt, but can not be tag switched to. The Republic of Bosnia has a small tree, but once completed will load a generic.
The Partisans rising up is treated like a civil war, and can be tag switched to by event. The Croatian Partisan Revolt has a small tree for rising units and guns to help it win. (See the Partisan Victory Section in Part 2)
​
Uprising/Civil War Events
The government will also get a small tree for rising units and guns to help it win. It will also get an event, ‘Deploying the Reserves.’ Of the three choices, each will help one of the three main Poglavnik contenders, raising their influence and lowering the others:

• the Homeguard for Lorković
• the Vojnica for Artuković
• the Black Legion for Francetić

Each will also rise units as well: two, three, and four respectively.
If the Legion was chosen, Francetić will ask for more autonomy. Denying his request will see his influence drop, while increasing the others. If accepted, it will raise his while lowering just Artuković’s. With more autonomy he will then request to lead the Legion personally. Denying his request will drop his influence and raise Artuković’s. If accepted, it will raise his while lowering Artuković’s. But letting him command will have dire consequences: his plane will be shot down, attacked by local Serbs, and die in hospital (This was his OTL death).
If the Bosnians rose up, the government will have only 60 days to defeat them, or risk defeat. In that case, Lorković will gain influence while Francetić’s and Artuković’s will fall.

• If Lorković is alive and has more influence than Francetić and Artuković, he will lead the Peasants’ Plot with Vokić, and Košutić and oust the Ustaša government. (See Lorković’s Section below).
• If Lorković is dead, whoever has more influence will be blamed for the defeat and arrested on trumped up charges. The Supreme Ustaša Council, acting as judge, juror, and executioner will find him guilty on all charges and sentenced to death, which will be immediately carried out. Artuković will be shot by the Legion, and Francetić hanged.

A new Poglavnik will be voted on shortly after.
Even if in a Civil War with the Partisans, the Bosnians may still rise up against both combatants. Weeks into the Civil War, reports will reach the government about Chetnik activities in Bosnia. Only if previously the Vojnica were called up as reserves, Artuković will press the need to send them in to quell any possible revolt. It will work, but in a joint Partisan-Chetnik operation Artuković will be assassinated when the bridge his train is on is blown up.
If the Vojnica were not called up, they cannot be sent in and so Bosnian Chetniks will rise up against the government and Partisans. The 60-day counter will start and lead to the same result as if it was against the Republic of Bosnia. The event that spawns the Chetnik Revolt allows for a tag switch to play as it, but currently has very little content.
With the Bosnians pacified and/or the Partisans destroyed, Croatia can declare victory, which will see Lorković’s influence drop a bit, while raising the others. The Poglavnik election can now finally be held. The Supreme Ustaša Council will, in the presence of the Sabor, announce the winner: he who has the most influence. Each leader is covered in his own section below.

• Lorković will have Branimir Jelić as his Second-in-Command, while Artuković or Francetić will have whoever has the second most influence as his Second, but if both are dead then will install Jelić

If it so happens that none of the three main contenders are left alive (the HSS was purged and Lorković found guilty, Francetić having died through the ‘Deploying the Reserves’ event chain, and Artuković blamed for the defeat in Bosnia) or all their influence is below 20%, Vokić and the Homeguard will coup the government. (See the Homeguard Coup’s Section below).
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General Notes

(The Agency icons created for Fascist and National Socialist government currently uses an incorrect icon, but will be fixed in an upcoming patch)
In the event that the Ustaša are ousted, whether from the Homeguard path, from Lorković (which will be explained below) or a victory for the Communists in the Civil War, the Ustaša Resistance national spirit will be added. About 20 days later the Crusader Revolt event and decision timer will trigger. This must not reach zero or the Crusaders (leftover Ustaša guerilla fighters) will launch a revolt that must be put down, or event switched to and played as. (See the Crusaders Section in Part 2)
When at war with Italy for Croatian Reunification, if Croatia can hold out for 50 days, it will prompt Italy to consider a peace proposal. But Croatia must have full control of its starting states (besides Srem and Slavonia) to ask. If so, Italy will always accept the peace, (but a Player led Italy may decline if Croatia does not control Zara, Fiume, and Istria) and will transfer Zara, Fiume, and Istria to Croatia.
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Lorković

Lorković Takes Control
With Mladen Lorković at the helm of the government, he wastes no time plotting behind the scenes, making deals with the Homeguard and the HSS. Once the deals are finalized, Lorković can strike at the Ustaša and overthrow it in the aptly named ‘Peasants’ Plot’ (named after the HSS). The Armed Forces will take over in a transitional role until the upcoming power struggle ends. The democratic HSS does not wholly trust the Homeguard under Lorković and Vokić, and their commitment to democracy for a future Croatia. This sets up a power struggle between the two groups.

• (The Peasants’ Plot was an OTL plot named the Lorković-Vokić Plot, hatched towards the end of WWII to switch sides and join the allies, like many other smaller Axis nations did. But it was uncovered and both Lorković and Vokić imprisoned and eventually executed.)

Homguard/HSS Power Struggle
The power struggle plays out through six events, and a pair of mutually exclusive foci. Choices made will increase the influence of the HSS, or the Homeguard. One such event ‘Dreams of a Free Bosnia,’ will either restore the Bosnian Autonomy, or puppet Bosnia, elevating it the national level.
By the end of the focus tree, the HSS will demand an immediate return to democracy and the resignation of Lorković. Lorković will call a meeting at his villa outside Zagreb, which can end in two ways:

1. If the HSS has more, or equal influence, Lorković will agree to the terms and both he and Vokić will retire from politics but will be appointed Chiefs in the new Armed Forces of Croatia. August Košutić and the HSS will be put into office. (See the Democracy Section in Part 2)
2. If the Homeguard has more influence, Vokić will barge into the meeting and arrest the HSS leadership and ban the party. Denouncing them as foreign agents, Lorković and Vokić will rule together in a Duumvirate. (For the Duumvirate, see the next Section)

Duumvirate

Lorković and Vokić's Duumvirate
Having pushed out the other Peasants’ Plot member, Lorković and Vokić will rule over Croatia equally, as Prime Minister and President, respectively. Wanting to embrace Italian Fascism, Lorković will almost immediately make enemies of the Homeguard. Unrest in its ranks will soar, and if not placated with concessions, the Homeguard will launch a coup and remove Lorković. (See the Homeguard Coup Section below)
But if the Homeguard was placated, Lorković can start to enact his vision for Croatia. The first one of which should be to completely ‘destroy the Ustaša’ (also a focus of the same name, which removes the Crusader Revolt timer). He will also move the economy away from ‘Croatian Socialism’ to ‘Croatian Corporatism,’ once again modeled on Italy’s.
With the groundwork set, Lorković will declare the Croatian State the Croatian Social Republic, and reform what’s left of the Ustaša into the Croatian National-Fascist Party. He will also ask for membership into Italy’s Mediterranean Pact, which will be accepted. As Croatia is now allied to Italy, when the focus ‘Ask for Zara and Rijeka’ is completed Italy will agree to the request.
The Croatian Social Republic will also get decisions to help Italy expand the Mediterranean Pact into the Balkans and Anatolia. Note that Albania, Greece, and Turkey, once annexed and puppeted, will be returned to Italy and become its puppets.
At the end of the focus tree, with Italy returning states via the ‘Ask for…’ focus, and taking Hungarian states through either the much earlier (border) war or Pact expansion, Croatia will have secured Lorković’s ideal borders, and can proclaim Reunification, which will lead to the World News Event and Ending Event for the Croatian Social Republic.

Homeguard Coup

Homeguard Coup
Ante Vokić of the Homeguard will coup the government if the weekly Stability Homeguard Influence check fails, if the three main contenders for Poglavnik are dead or influence is below 20% at the time of the election, or the military was not placated when Lorković turned to Italy.
If the coup occurred during the election, he will storm the Sabor and strongarm the Council to vote him in as Poglavnik. He will immediately use his powers to dissolve the government and abolish the whole system (including his minutes old office) and declare a Junta. If it was from any other case, he will storm the Sabor but it will make him the Military Dictator, and he’ll use his new powers to abolish the whole system.
The focus tree is short, for Vokić has two choices: to restore democracy (See the Democracy Section in Part 2), or continue to rule as a Junta.

Junta

Vokić Keeps the Junta
Declaring a state of emergency, Vokić will declare war on radicalism (whether on the right or left of the political spectrum). The first thing he will do is create an intelligence agency to deal with internal enemies, for ‘a healthy state needs a healthy security apparatus.’ One of the first groups he can go after are the Ustaša remnants, by taking ‘Purge the Ustaša’ which should be taken as soon as possible to remove the Crusader Revolt timer. He will then go after everyone else ( his interpretation of radicalism is a big tent): the Partisans, Bosnians, Chetniks, democrats, and socialists. On the bright side he will abolish the draconian Racial Laws of the old Ustaša.
Vokić has not just a political tree but an expansion tree as well. To start taking expansion foci, the entire military tree must be completed, and about the first third of the economic tree as well. The expansion tree focuses on three counties, Hungary, Italy, and Serbia. The first row of foci will prepare for the coming wars by building forts on the border, the second row will declare war, and the third will Croatianize the lands by changing names and removing foreign cores.
With his victory over the Italians, Hungarians, and Serbs, Vokić will gain the nickname, the Croatian Caesar, and can finally declare Croatia Reunified, which will lead to the World News Event and Ending Event for the Croatian State.

Artuković

Artuković Takes Power
Artuković Events
With Andrija Artuković having been elected Poglavnik, things will continue mostly business as usual. He must first though secure his position, which means the purging of suspected enemies. One of the first is the Homeguard. He can conduct a light purge, or a heavy one which will both remove any Homeguard Generals, but also the threat of a Homeguard Coup (as the Croatian Homeguard UI will be disabled).
Having also purged the government, Artuković can move to secure his position through the ‘Secure the Poglavnik’s Position’ focus. It unlocks a number of decisions to finally secure his rule, and will disable the NDH Administration UI. Once Serbia is puppeted, this category will give a unique decision that lets Croatia ‘take revenge’ on Serbia, more specifically, rampaging unrestricted through Belgrade.
After securing his rule, Artuković will look outward. As Lorković looked to Italy, Artuković will look to Germany, and will ask to join the Neue Ordnung. But there is only a 30% chance Germany will accept. If it does not, Artuković may choose to form his own faction, The Greater Croatian League.
The dream of a united Greater Croatia is not lost on Artuković. To ‘Claim Greater Croatia,’ which unlocks the expansion tree, the top third of both the economic and military trees must be completed. But farther down the political tree there is the focus ‘Integrate Greater Croatia.’ This unlocks decisions to core (and change the names) of the states included in Greater Croatia once they are owned. To do that, the expansion tree will give wargoals on Italy, and the owners of Banat, and Vojvodina and Srem.
The war with Italy will follow the normal path, except that in the peace deal Montenegro will also be transferred. Artuković can press his luck and ask for Slovenian lands as well, which Italy will accept if Croatia controls those states (Northern Trieste, Southern Trieste, Slovenia, Littoral, and Lubiana). If they are not controlled, there is still a chance Italy will peace out and transfer them, but it’s only 20%.
In addition to the decisions shown, there are also ones to declare war for certain states, like on Serbia if it owns Montenegro (and is not a Croatian puppet), or Italy if it owns the state of Slovenia, but Croatia owns Rejika and Zara, or lastly Hungary over the state of Prekmurje. Slovenia itself is not needed as part of Greater Croatia, but can be cored if owned.
Once the Slovenian states are owned and if the Republic of Slovenia does not exist, a Transitional Region will be created in owned Slovenian states and after a year will be cored.
Once the expansion tree is completed, Artuković can declare Greater Croatia, stretching from Trieste to Banat, from Prekmurje to Montenegro, complete with a new flag. This will give the World News Event. For the Ending Event, the rest of the other focus trees must be completed which will unlock the last focus in the political tree. With its completion the event will show; as a homage to the introduction event, Croatia’s dark night will get a lot darker.

Francetić

Francetić's Takes Power
Francetić Events
With Jure Francetić having been elected Poglavnik, he will get to work immediately to model Croatia after Romania’s Iron Guard, having a much greater emphasis on the Church than other leaders. But before he can do anything, there is the issue of Vjekoslav Luburić. Luburić was head of the concentration camps in Croatia and a cleanser during the war, and was known to be especially brutal, even by Ustaše standards. From the moment Francetić takes power, Luburić has been planning his coup and will execute it in 150 days. Before that time is up, Francetić must have Luburić executed, or set him up with his own little fiefdom in Srem. In either case it gets rid of him. (For his Coup, see the next Section)
With the Luburić issue settled, Francetić will start bringing Legionarism to Croatia, getting a Legionarism national spirit which will improve as more foci are completed. Like Artuković, he may purge the Homeguard as well. He can conduct a light purge, or a heavy one which will both remove any Homeguard Generals, but also the threat of a Homeguard Coup (as the Croatian Homeguard UI will be disabled).
Halfway through his political tree, Francetić will be made a Field Marshal and elevated to the position he deserves, and be known as the Conqueror of Drina. It will unlock numerous decisions to help secure not only his rule but Legionarism as well. One of the decisions can see him reach out to the US and offer a non-aggression pact, but with only a 20% success rate. Once unified, Francetić can declare Croatia officially neutral.
To begin the reclamation of Croatian lands, which unlocks the expansion tree, the top third of both the economic and military trees must be completed. The last focus in the political tree will reorganize the NDH into the Reorganized Croatian State, but observers will note the new state’s similarities to the Croatia of Ante Pavelić.
As for the expansion tree, Croatia will get wargoals on Italy, and the owner of Vojvodina, if not already owned. The war with Italy and its peace proposal will follow the normal route. At the end of the tree, Francetić will be able to proclaim Croatia reunified which will lead to the World News Event and Ending Event for the Reorganized Croatian State.

Luburić Coup

Luburić's and Filipović's Coups
Once Vjekoslav Luburić overthrows Francetić, it will send any stability left in the country into a tailspin. (It is advised that before the coup triggers, to conduct a heavy purge on the Homeguard so it will not coup once stability gets too low compared to its influence). In Luburić’s mind there is one thing and one thing only, to literally kill any and all dissent.
By the end of his short tree, Luburić will himself be overthrown by Miroslav Filipović (a once Franciscan friar and Ustaše military chaplain who headed concentration camps). After conducting his own round of purging, Filipović will declare that Croatians are not Slavs, but actually descendants of the Goths, and style Croatia as the Veliki Ostrogotski Rajh (the Great Ostrogothic Reich).
While concurrently planning and executing wars against Serbia and Italy, being the good Catholic he is, Filipović will write to the Vatican to report on the successful cleansing of the country. The Vatican will write back, excommunicating him from the Church. This will send him over the edge and lose what little sanity he has left. Spinning a story the Vatican invited him to Rome, Filipović will travel by boat… alone… to Rome via the Adriatic Sea. The war with Italy aside, he needs no protection for God will take care of him. Once an Italian ship spots him, he will be fired upon and drown as his boat sinks. With his body washing ashore days later, the government, now led by the collective Supreme Ustaša Council, will be left in a state of panic as society breaks down around it
Croatia will not last long and will implode. Bandits fight bandits, opposing Ustaše militias fight it out in the streets, the Chetniks and Partisans both rise up, and neighboring countries will conduct land grabs. Croatia is no more. “Croatia heard the beast say, come and see. And Croatia beheld…”
Croatian Collapse
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Link to Part 2

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

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DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

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April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

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Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

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Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

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But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

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The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

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Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

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While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

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The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

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Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

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Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

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Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

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Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

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Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

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On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

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In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

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Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

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Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

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Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

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A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

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(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

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I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

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Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

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DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

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According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.

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April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).

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Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.

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Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.

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But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.

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The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.

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Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.

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While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.

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The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.

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Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.

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Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.

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Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.

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Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.

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Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.

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On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-

($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)